El Nino Food Security Response Report # 2
"Harare (Catholic Relief Services, April 13, 1998) - Southern Africa Regional Office, El Nino Food Security Response Report # 2. April 14, 1998. For additional information contact Gino Lofredo CRS/SARO, e-mail: lofredo@icon.co.zw.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The CRS/SARO's first El Nino Food Security Response Report of March 4, 1998 was circulated widely and generated considerable feedback. In this Report # 2 we incorporate new information from CRS/SARO field validation missions to Malawi and Lesotho, from CRS offices in the region and from other in-country sources. While we maintain the basic definition of the four original emergency status groupings in our first Report we acknowledge our readers' comments that limiting our focus to food access problems linked to El Nino was too restrictive and left out situations that needed attention. Therefore we are broadening our criteria to include food crisis caused by other factors. In this report we include field validated information on Malawi and Lesotho. We also report on the spreading crop damage caused by weather problems and locust infestation in Madagascar. A review of the SARO countries' crop prospects is also included based on data just made available from SADC, FAO, WFP and FEWS assessments.
REGIONAL OVERVIEW As of the first week of April 1998, crop growing conditions have been generally favourable in most parts of Southern Africa as the February dry spell was followed by good rains in March. However, we have received reports of localized crop damage in several parts of the subregion normally vulnerable to erratic rainfall. While it is still too early to give precise production figures for the season, there seems to be a consensus among experts that total cereal production in the SADC countries may be about 8% below the relatively good 96/97 harvest. This is good news when we recall that as recently as of January forecasters were looking at a 20 to 30% drop. According to the FAO/WFP mid-season food supply review, the major forecasts for these countries are still very tentative and subject to distortions motivated by other than technical considerations. More definitive figures on cereal import requirements for the region will not be available until late May when most of the crops will have been harvested. The 13 countries included in the SARO region have been analysed and categorized in the four groupings below based on data made available as of April 13, 1998. You will notice some shifts in the position of some countries in our food vulnerability groupings between our first and second reports.
1. FOOD CRISIS. Major relief intervention probable.
Food security seriously affected by weather and other factors. Significant sectors of the population are facing severe food access difficulties. Domestic coping mechanisms are insufficient to respond to the crisis. External support requested and field information independently validated. CRS emergency relief intervention requested and being considered
NO COUNTRIES IN THE CRS/SARO REGION ARE IN THIS CATEGORY
2. MODERATE FOOD ACCESS DIFFICULTIES. CRS will monitor closely developments in these countries. An assessment of response capacity and interest in mitigation activities is recommended. Food production now affected and chronically vulnerable to weather patterns. Moderate food access difficulties in specific chronically vulnerable districts. Moderate to severe economic difficulties widespread. Domestic coping mechanisms activated and insufficient . Other non weather factors compound food difficulties (ie pests, insecurity). International donors and NGO's being approached for food relief
CONGO BRAZZAVILLE, CONGO DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC, LESOTHO, MADAGASCAR
3. POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE BUT ABLE TO COPE. Not facing food security difficulties this season but require continued monitoring and forecasting. Existing domestic and external resources can meet estimated consumption needs. CRS mitigation activities recommended and being considered.
ANGOLA, MALAWI, ZAMBIA , ZIMBABWE
4. ABLE TO COPE. No CRS food relief intervention likely in the 98/99 season. Parts of these countries may be negatively affected by El Nino or other weather patterns, sometimes seriously, but their natural and economic resources make them able to cope with eventual or chronic food shortages.
BOTSWANA, SOUTH AFRICA, MOZAMBIQUE, SWAZILAND, NAMIBIA
These groupings reflect the food access vulnerability in each country based on the analysis and projections contained in the attached report. The data and assessment upon which this report is based cover the period through 4/7/98. In this Report # 2 we attempt to provide a useful tool for ourselves and for our colleagues in the Caritas, CIDSE and broad international NGO community. For CRS our purpose is to identify the potential problem countries in Southern Africa to concentrate our attention and effort where they may be needed most. In our next Report we will share the results of our assessment of the Madagascar situation and look at the implications of the near definitive data on this season's crop yields for the food security in the region. We will continue our field visits with the purpose of validating the information available and to assess the interest and capacity of potential partners of the Church community to engage in mitigation and/or relief interventions when the situation may require it. This report and subsequent updates will be circulated per distribution list on the last page of the report. Interested parties may contact the Southern Africa Regional Office's El Nino Response Coordinator in Harare, Zimbabwe by e-mail at glofredo@crs.icon.co.zw, or by fax at (263-4) 726 555.
CRS/SARO FIELD VALIDATION ASSESSMENTS
MALAWI From March 8th through the 15th CRS/SARO visited Malawi to assess the impact of lack and excess of rains on crop development. The favourable rains through most of the season led to better maturity of the crops and better than average expected yields. While floods in some districts damaged property and caused loss of lives, their impact on crops was not as severe as anticipated. Increased yields in some areas are attributed to timely availability of improved seeds and other inputs as compensatory measures for increases in the cost of fertilizers. Harvest prospects are very favourable. Total maize production is projected at 29% above last season, for an estimated 1.8 million MT. The increase in wheat production is estimated at 39%. Malawi will be within reach of cereal consumption self-sufficiency. The relatively small deficit will be met through normal market mechanisms. The field assessment served to identify several mitigation strategies which could reduce risks in future erratic seasons: 1) expand horticulture which in many areas with relatively simple irrigation schemes,can be grown in the dry season and become year round cash crops; 2) Increase the availability of drought resistant maize seeds and expand multicropping practices; and 3) Promote small scale water harnessing and simple irrigation schemes to reduce the impact of lower than normal rainfall. NGO's and Ministry of Agriculture extensionists are cooperating in these initiatives but their capacity is insufficient for the tasks. Some budget cutting aspects of the Structural Adjustment Policies have limited the resources of the Ministry of Agriculture's extentionists network whose role in improving agricultural practices and yields is indispensable. It would seem this government activity is definitely not the place to cut expenditures. Additional domestic and international resources would be more appropriate. On the other hand, continuing subsidies of grain prices through the Government's distribution outlet while intended to reduce food access difficulties to the poor in remote areas is often misused by profit seeking intermediaries. Despite overall increases in production and diversification of crops, certain districts are suffering food access difficulties. WFP Malawi has identified 10 such areas and is carrying out a food for work assistance program improving access roads and laying irrigation schemes. Food assistance requirements will be marginal and the institutional framework in place is capable of responding adequately. CRS partners in the CADECOM and other health and education networks of the Catholic Church have an extensive presence in most areas of the country. Their role in a severe food emergency would be very useful for distribution of food and the provision of health services. However, since mitigation activities and the improvement of agricultural practices in low yield and weather vulnerable areas is the priority response, the CADECOM district representatives need technical training and additional resources to assist small farmers. Strengthening the mitigation and developmental capacities of this support network and increasing its linkages with the Ministry of Agriculture extentionists is a central component of the country's program.
LESOTHO From March 18th through the 26th, CRS/SARO visited Lesotho to assess the reported severe crop damage and the emerging food crisis situation. During this mission we were able to observe directly the crop and livestock conditions in the main production areas in the Highlands, Foothills and Lowlands districts. The following is a summary of our findings: 1. A particularly damaging sequence of unusual weather has caused significant damage to the maize crop and yields are expected to be between 30 and 40% below the previous season. However we found no evidence of significant food access difficulties which could require emergency relief interventions. Government generated data suggesting a serious emergency has not been adequately validated. No systematic crop assessments or household food security surveys have been carried out. We did not detect the activation of the early coping mechanisms that announce the start of a food crisis situation. 2. Lesotho normally imports about 50% of its food consumption requirements mostly from South Africa. The current deficit crop may increase these import needs to about 300,000 MT of cereals or about 58% of its consumption needs. The principal importers are the millers who report normal demand patterns for this pre harvest lean period. A range of income indicators support the view that purchasing power is sufficient and possibly expanding in aggregate figures in all but a few specific areas and social sectors. The disposable income comes from miners remittances, growth of the urban informal sector, a significant expansion of the garment and footwear export oriented manufacturing sector, the largely unaccounted stabilizing effect of the livestock and wool sectors, and finally, in terms of government income, the start of the royalty payments from South Africa for the water Lesotho exports. Therefore despite the sharp decline in cereal production in the 97/98 season commercial demand driven imports are expected to cover food consumption requirements. No major food assistance operation is expected to be needed. Nevertheless the government's Disaster Management Authority and some international NGO's have requested and obtained small amounts of food aid which they intend to target distribute in the coming months. Unfortunately the lack of field data on the most affected populations may limit the effectiveness of the effort. Lesotho faces a strategic food and agriculture problem which requires immediate and decisive action by national and international agencies. Agricultural production in Lesotho has dropped at the average rate of 1% per year since the 1950's. Since then the size of the country's prime agricultural land has been cut by 1/3 mostly by voracious erosion and urban expansion. Experts agree that only radical changes in water and land management, a decisive shift away from maize cropping and into horticulture and fruits, combined with the introduction of soil preservation and rehabilitation technologies and agricultural practices can reverse the rapid deterioration taking place. These interventions will require considerable investments in infrastructure and in human resources development. Government revenues from the Katse Dam and Muela hydropower station could be used for these purposes. The key actors in such an effort would have to be the government's Agricultural Extensionists and Disaster Management networks, and the coordinated effort of the national and international NGO communities. The far reaching network of missions and schools run by the Catholic Church (450 schools serving 46% of all students) could serve as the physical backbone for the massive training and retraining exercise required.
NEW INFORMATION AND MONITORING ACTIVITIES
MADAGASCAR In our March report we noted that the weather patterns in Madagascar were not disrupting crop development significantly and that the food access difficulties were more related to localized locust infestation and the general lack of adequate infrastructure. Madagascar saw rainfall deficits alternated with excessive precipitation from one week to the next. Madagascar's position makes it particularly sensitive to the ocean temperature changes associated with El Nino. The disadvantage is erratic rainfall. The one advantage is that in El Nino years Madagascar is spared the seasonal cyclones. Since then we have learned that rains in February and March created conditions for a second season of locust swarms reproduction. They have already caused damage more severe than initially forecast. The national food supply situation is generally satisfactory except in the southern areas where the 1997 production was reduced by the combined impact of locusts and insufficient rains. Food aid pledged by donors amounts to 29,500 tonnes of which 16,000 tonnes have been delivered.. A March 24, 1998 emergency report from FAO says that the current infestation poses a serious threat to the staple rice crop. Heavy infestation is said to cover some 10 million hectares, or about 17% of the total area of the country. Earlier this year FAO launched an international appeal to fight the locust threat, US$8 million have been committed by donors so far. FAO obtained five fixed-wing aircraft and a helicopter for aerial spraying, pesticides and international locust experts to start a control program. The Madagascar Government has now drafted in the army to take the lead in control operations, working alongside the agriculture ministry's plant protection service. Despite the substantial effort under way, it may take several years to control the plague. In the immediate future, emphasis may have to be placed on protecting crops rather than on ending the plague.
According to a WFP report the USAID Disaster Unit fielded a mission during the last week of March to evaluate damages in the Mid-west. Its report states, "There are reasons to believe that the Malagasy locusts are evolving and reproducing at speeds never before recorded in laboratories and field studies around the world." FAO/WFP and GTZ will be fielding missions in April and May to determine which emergency responses may be required. CRS/SARO will assess the Madagascar situation starting April 14th and an emergency report will be circulated in May.
ZIMBABWE The 97/98 maize crop estimates for Zimbabwe vary considerably. Depending on the sources and the methodologies used Zimbabwe could have an export surplus of about 200,000 tonnes, or have to import of as much as 600,000 tonnes. These variations can not be explained on purely technical grounds. Maize availability and its impact on staple food prices is a very sensitive political issue in the current environment where the extent and form of the land redistribution program is being shaped by powerful national and international players. Despite the differences there appears to be agreement on a reduction of crop yields in the communal areas of approximately 30% with respect to last season. Some analysts point to the rainfall patterns as the cause, others note that this figure is in itself politically sensitive and can not be relied upon. Low yields in communal areas may increase food vulnerability considerably among poor farmers. Considering the complexity of the Zimbabwe situation we found the April 7, Zimbabwe FEWS report to be the most comprehensive and useful. According to FEWS, the first official crop forecast calls for 1.42 million Mt of maize, some 18 percent short of average production, and below the human grain consumption requirement of about 1.9 million Mt. Maize makes up 85-90 percent of the country's coarse grain production. Expected wheat production is about 250,000 mt. There may be a post-harvest assessment of production in May 1998. The FEWS report says that potential domestic maize shortfall may be 565, 000 mt, if the Strategic Grain Reserve of 500,000 Mt is to be reconstituted. The maize on-hand after the harvest will cover all needs until March 1999, but imports will be required several months before that for buffer stocks. Water and pasture conditions are good in almost all districts. Maize prices, both retail and wholesale, are greatly higher this year than last year, and in many cases are double what they were. The poor will be able to buy less grain than last year. Especially for families in the marginal farming areas of the south, whose harvest will produce little, the high price of maize is the real factor of vulnerability. Because pastures and livestock are in good condition, the food security of these populations is unlikely to crash next year. Government relief programs are likely to register more than the 1.2 million people who on average receive food supplements. An explanation linking lower production in Zimbabwe with inappropriate management of drought forecast information comes from WFP and deserves special attention: "The management of El Nino information has led to some farmers reducing areas planted and others not planting at all... Some farmers did not buy any inputs because they did not want to waste resources... The publicity on El Nino also caused many farmers to hold on to their stocks and reduce deliveries to the Grain Marketing Board causing speculation in the markets and steep rise in prices... many farmers planted short season varieties which yield less... and others did not weed their crops or grazed in anticipation of the reported drought..." CRS heard similar reports on farmers behavior in other countries initially expected to be affected by El Nino. It is now apparent that in addition to forecasting weather and crop yields, El Nino watchers will have manage carefully public information with such potential for social economic and political disruption. Close work among meteorologists, agronomists, economists and communication specialists will be needed.
MOZAMBIQUE Observers agree that Mozambique is the food production success story of the season. If final crop yields como close to the SADC maize forecasts, Mozambique will be the only country in the region able to export maize, about 10% of its gross harvest, perhaps as much as 150,000 tonnes. Credit goes to the improvement in the security environment and the favourable weather through most of the country. Better availability of key inputs in previously isolated areas may also have improved yields. Production estimates for other agricultural projects show similar improvements.
ZAMBIA Forecasts for Zambia's cereal production have improved since our last report # 1 where we noted that mid term assessments by the Government of Zambia, WFP/FAO and FEWS pointed to sharp drops in cereal production this season. More abundant and stable rainfall during February and March, good access to seed and fertilizer, and early crop diversification has improved forecasts. In its 3/18/98 update WFP reports that "Early prospects for the 1998 cereal harvest are generally favourable in the major growing areas... The present food supply situation is generally satisfactory as a result of recent imports of maize, especially from South Africa... cereal supply should cover needs until the new crop... further imports may be required during the 98/99 marketing year to cover the country's cereal needs."
SITUATIONS UNCHANGED ANGOLA Through the beginning of April the weather has been favourable in Angola's most important agricultural areas. Normally Angola is not affected by El Nino weather changes. Despite important advances in the negotiations to stabilize the political situation general insecurity continue to hamper agricultural production. The land mines used extensively during the war make inputs and crop transport dangerous. Despite these security problems production is expected to be between 5% and 15% higher than in the 97 season. Import requirements estimated at 400,000 Mt. of cereals to be purchased with domestic and international resources. Numerous NGO's are reported to be well positioned to respond to food distribution requirements.
BOTSWANA Botswana is probably the country whose already meager agriculture has been most severely affected by the season's weather pattern. Irregular, untimely and insufficient rains led to an estimated 66% drop in cereal production. Botswana may only produce about 6% of its cereal consumption requirements this season. The country's considerable revenues from mineral resources will cover import costs without difficulties.
NAMIBIA In the current season Namibia will have to import about 60% of its cereal consumption needs, the average for the past 5 years is 40%. Lower production is mainly attributed to a significant reduction of the areas planted and not so much to weather problems. Pastures and grazing lands have done well. Namibia's economic resources will cover import requirements.
SOUTH AFRICA South Africa's average maize surplus is roughly equivalent to the rest of the region's deficit. Damage to SA's grain crops would exacerbate problems in other SADC countries. Preliminary estimates show both planted areas and expected yields dosn from the previous season. Most recent SADC estimates suggest a 15% drop in cereal production leaving little if any exportable maize surplus. South Africa is food self sufficient even under worst production scenarios. With most grain markets in the SADC region now open to free trade effective purchasing demand is a more decisive factor to food access than actual local production.
SWAZILAND Over the past five years Swaziland has averaged a 92% maize self sufficiency. Good season progression with rainfall above normal and the reported extensive use of early planting and short season varieties suggest that 97/98 production will be within the historical average. Food supply reserves are satisfactory and will cover demand without significant import requirements." -- Distributed via Africa News Online.