I am not sure whether this is relevant, but I have been closely monitoring a population of yellow-eyed penguins since 1980. 1)The 1982-83 El Nino was a non event for this species. 2)There was a diet switch (preferred food absent) in 1985-86 which resulted in about 15% adult mortality, and all of the juveniles from the 1984 cohort. As far as we are aware only one chick appears to have survived from the 1985-86 cohort. 3)In 1989-90, 52% of all adult birds died. We really do not know why, although it has been suggested that this was avian malaria. Because most of the adults died prior to their chicks fledging, again we have only ever recovered two 1989-90 chicks on the whole of the mainland of New Zealand. 4) In late Dec 1996 two breeding adults died unexpectedly. A further two deaths early January led to autopsies. These birds and another 80 odd breeding adults died by the end of February. These birds showed the same symptoms- or lack of them as did the mortality of 1989-90. We suspect a biotoxin-Okadaic Acid??????. Deaths peaked in the second week of February--most chicks got away. Another 26 birds died, mainly from foot injuries caused by sharks?. A fisherman observed that it was "wall to wall" blue sharks around the Otago Peninsula. Mean weight of unexplained deaths was 4.5 kg. Starvation weights for this species are 2.7-3.2.-- John Darby <john.darby@clear.net.nz>