15 OCTOBER. NORTH AMERICA: SOCIETAL IMPACTS

 "The past two decades are replete with evidence of the significant economic and social costs associated with unanticipated disruptions in weather and climate patterns. For example, estimates of global losses associated with the 1982-1983 El Nino event exceeded $8 billion. Of that figure, U.S. losses associated with storms in the Mountain and Pacific states, flooding in the Gulf States, and Hurricane Iwa in Hawaii, were estimated to have cost $2.5 billion. The 1988 U.S. drought resulted in an estimated $2-4 billion in direct losses to agricultural producers, with total losses throughout the economy estimated at greater than $22 billion. The 1993 Midwest floods were associated with about $15-20 billion in damages and costs. The 1995 floods in California and the Gulf States resulted in estimated losses of $7 billion. More recently, significant damage and losses have resulted from the heavy rains associated with tropical storms along the west coast, the Gulf of California, and parts of southern Arizona. Yet these figures alone do not adequately capture the real measure of human suffering, direct losses, and missed opportunities.

During the past decade it has become increasingly clear that the coupled ocean-atmosphere weather phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), plays a dominant role in influencing year-to-year changes in climatic conditions around the world. Based upon enhanced understanding of ENSO, scientists have refined their ability to provide useful predictions on a scale that accommodates local and regional planning decisions. The capability to understand and predict El Nino phenomena also presents government officials, industry, and local communities with an array of opportunities, including: reducing vulnerability to climate-related natural disasters such as floods and droughts; enhancing economic competitiveness; supporting public- and private-sector decision-making for climatically-sensitive regions and sectors; providing scientific information to support U.S. international treaty negotiations; and in assessing and maintaining national and international environmental security.

The forecasts are proving to be very useful. For example, the1997-98 El Nino forecast for the United States indicates that Southern California and the Gulf States will experience wetter than normal conditions during the fall and winter of 1997-1998. Federal and local emergency preparedness officials are currently reviewing options available to reduce the human and economic costs associated with potential flooding conditions. In California, scientists, forecasters, and emergency management officials expect the increase in rainfall to be accompanied by an increase in the number and severity of coastal storms, so planners are also developing strategies to deal with threats due to coastal erosion as well as flooding. On the other hand, sports fishing for some deep water species which prefer warm-water conditions (e.g. tuna and marlin) could produce record income for this important California industry. Similarly, a shift in the movement of tuna stocks is expected to produce significant benefits to the tuna cannery industry in American Samoa.

Higher forecasted temperatures for most of the northern and central regions of the U.S. provide natural gas and electric utilities with opportunities to adapt their purchasing, shipment, and storage plans accordingly. Commodities trading in crops such as wheat, coffee, cocoa and sugar is already reflecting the predicted impacts of this year's El Niño. While this year's Atlantic hurricane season witnessed little activity, Hawaii, on the other hand, is anticipating a more active season for tropical storms and hurricanes (Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki both struck during years of warmer than normal ocean temperatures--1982 and 1992, respectively). In addition, many Pacific island countries are preparing for El Nino-related drought conditions".--Tony Socci<tsocci@USGCRP.GOV>