5 DECEMBER 1997. VENEZUELA: DISEASE (MALARIA)

The Journal of the American Medical Association 1997 (278: 1772 - 1774) published a paper, Cycles of Malaria Associated With El Nino in Venezuela, by Menno Jan Bouma and Christopher Dye, suggesting that malaria epidemics in Venezuela are linked to ENSO outbreaks. They reached this conclusion by comparing malaria morbidity and mortality to eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). Malaria increases 36.5 % in years after ENSO events. The correlation of SST and malaria in the subsequent year was significant at the .001 level but r was only 0.50. This suggests that public health efforts against malaria can be planned, using ENSO predictions. (Similar analyses of dengue and cholera would be very interesting.--ed.)--see the following url: <http://www.ama-assn.org/sci-pubs/journals/most/recent/issues/jama/jbr6268a. htm> reported by Luiz Jacintho da Silva <luisjs@guttenberg.correionet.com.br> via promed-edr@usa.healthnet.org.

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