REPORTS FROM CONTRIBUTORS

10 JULY 1997. WASHINGTON STATE: FISH

Clallam County, Sand Point Trail, West of Lake Ozette. On 10 July 1997 I observed an Osprey feeding on a Pacific mackerel. The bird was perched in a snag just off the trail leading to Sand Pont in the Olympic National Park. Although mackerel are known to occur off the Washingtoncoast, they are uncommon close to shore, and it is unlikely the Osprey took the fish more than a few hundred meters from the beach.-- Ron Jameson < ronj@mail.cor.epa.gov

30 JULY: PERU

As you are aware rains and floods have been catastrophic in China, Europe, USA, Brazil, Chile, etc. Here in Peru, at the end of July, I am still in short sleeve shirt and except for social affairs have not worn a coat (August is normally our coldest month). Sunday and Monday were practically full summer days. On Monday I went to Lunahuana (42 km inland from Canete) and along the coast there were people on the beaches camping and swimming. Not even in the last "El Nino" (1982-1983) did we experienced such hot weather. In northern Peru (Tumbes, Piura,Lambayeque), authorities are taking full precautions to minimize flood damage, by cleaning river beds, culverts, constructing containing walls, etc. It is expected that "El Nino" should start manifesting itself sometime in September. It is to early to determine how seabirds are being affected. However, warm water fish have migrated south along the coast and the anchovy has likewise moved south and probably down searching for cold waters. The government has declared a ban on anchovy fishing, but not the Chileans. In the Andes from Ancash to Puno temperatures are the lowest in decades.So much so, that extreme drought is expected. Practically nothing has been published on what to expect in the Amazon basin. Those of you that may have access to satellite photos of the Pacific, conditions look bad for the future, but nobody has a crystal ball. I only hope that temperatures next summer (January/March) will not go above 32 degrees C. in Lima. This morning on TV it was reported 42 C somewhere in Argentina. <MAPlenge@southernperu.com.pe

6 AUGUST: USA ALASKA

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Press Release: Large Numbers of Seabirds Wash Ashore: Biologists Scramble to Solve Mysterious Die-Off

In two mysterious die-offs, birds continue to wash ashore along the Alaska Peninsula and on St. Lawrence Island. Murres and puffins have been found between Gambell and Savoonga and St. Lawrence Island. Dead kittiwakes, bald eagles and other species have been reported from Chignik to False Pass. According to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist, Vivian Mendenhall, specimens are being collected from both areas for autopsy, which should help biologists determine the reasons for the die-off. She also says that die-offs from different locations and involving different kinds of birds may have different causes. Mendenhall says that they have not yet determined the cause of this die-off. Temporary die-offs in the past have often been due to lack of food or when ocean conditions are unusual. "However, it is important to investigate any unusual mortality and check out all possible causes," she said. In the meantime, biologists are considering the effect warmer temperatures could be having, since this year southwestern Alaska experienced an unusually early spring. The Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska are several degrees above normal temperatures this year, which biologists say affects the marine ecosystem, including birds. "Unusual water conditions can change the birds' food supply," Mendenhall said. In May of this year, large numbers of murres died in the area of Etolin Strait, off northeastern Nunivak Island. "Seabird die-offs are not uncommon," Mendenhall said. "They have been observed every decade or two in northern countries." According to Mendenhall, seabird die-offs studied so far have not affected populations significantly. "We plan to combine local information and our studies of specimens to explain what's causing our birds to die this time. We especially need help with counting the birds," Mendenhall said. Mendenhall says that anyone with information should contact her at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Anchorage at (907)786-3517, or biologist Karen Laing at (907)786-3459.

11 AUGUST: USA ALASKA

Virginia Aleck from Chignik Lake called yesterday to mention the large numbers of dead birds they are seeing on the Alaska Peninsula coast in the areas of Chignik Lake and also Perryville. She specifically mentioned finding shearwaters, "whale birds" (fulmars, right?), murres, and gulls. She also mentioned bald eagles and a poor return of salmon to the Kametolook River. stans@oilspill.state.ak.us (Stan Senner)

11 AUGUST: USA ALASKA

A few 'floaters' were noted including one dead Baird's Beaked Whale (very old male), and seven dead Walrus. The Walrus carcasses were initially throught attibutable to probable natural mortality given the relative close proximity (60-100nm) to the huge Round Island rookery in northern Bristol Bay. However, now in light of concern regarding dead seabirds and current very warm waters in the Bering Sea this summer makes me reconsider that something more sinister may be going on; the current El Nino a contributing suspect. Casually stumbling across 7 dead walrus in just a few days seems like quite a few and suggests that there were many more floating around out there. Sea temperatures 61F (13C) in coastal Bristol Bay?!?! 10F (~6C) above normal! A few dead seabirds, mostly fulmars, shearwaters, and murres were seen belly up, but these seemed like a natural kind of mortality with the encounter rate subjectively not thought to be unusal in these waters where seabird densities can be phenomenal. Incredible weather during the first half -- often flat becalmed mirror-like Beaufort 00 with nary a ripple from horizon to horizon in an extensive area of eerie and bizarre aurora-aqua green water (looked like an over chlorinated swimming pool) which no one can seem to explain at the moment, except that it was warmer (59F / 12.3C) and less saline than surrounding sea water outsidet his visually well marked and extensive zone -- maybe a dome of plankton soup and pack ice melt(?) ... but if so, why warmer'? ...or run-off, but from where? -- there are no large rivers or glacial drainage feeding into that area to create a feature as vast as this, but it was in just these waters where the greatest concentrations of large whales and Harbor Porpoise were including the Right Whales and that unexpected group of White-sided Dolphins. Anyway, after analysis of water samples and a little more investigation, we should get it sorted out eventually. This water was so pale and bizarre that it reflected off the overcast, creating a feature reminiscent to "ice blink" of polar ice edge, but here, turning the clouds aqua and horizon a purple haze. With 80,000+ hours at sea over the past 25 years, I've never seen anything like it. This was so weird with a greasy feel as to border on nauseating at times. Conditions were more "typical" Bering Sea during the second half -- always overcast, off and on foggy, drizzly, and a 15-20-knot wind chop.Richard Rowlett (Pagodroma@aol.com) VIA SEABIRD

13 AUGUST: SST's

This is the address for SST anomalies on the web: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~jeh/IMAGES/SST/sst.anom.gif You will note that the Gulf of Alaska and the Coast of Peru are now the two most anomalous places on the planet in terms of hot seas. The two may not be related. What is a warm winter going to do to bird and fish overwintering survival? D. Duffy <afdcd1@uaa.alaska.edu

13 AUGUST: PERU

During the weekend we had an unusual 'freaje' that came along the Andes, along the coast, and part of Amazonia. In Lima we had a temperature drop slightly below 20&deg; C. Lots of rain for us during three days. 40 km winds that created a dust storm in parts of Lima, blew corrugated roofs and some trees. Between Casapalca and Morococha at Ticlio there was a storm that accumulated snow more than one meter in places. The Misti in Arequipa is covered with snow all the way down. Two days ago in Cuzco there some snowflakes. Along the Andes temperatures 0&deg; or below. Some people froze.. The high parts are all covered with snow blocking the high roads for hours or days. Today I learned that the road between Puquio and Challapallca (Ayacucho) has the greatest amount of snow and is totally blocked. Juliaca is also heavily covered with snow. Strong winds in places from Cajamarca south."Plenge, Manuel" <MAPlenge@southernperu.com.pe

25 AUGUST: USA CALIFORNIA

We've had two rain storms in past 10 d; pretty weird, beats even the '83 incident. Had a frigate bird and a dark-rumped petrel here and about as well. David Ainley <<harveyecology@worldnet.att.net

26 AUGUST: BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CALIFORNIA

Excerpted from FSNET (D. Powell, Univ. Guelph): The Food and Drug Administration has issued a warning against eating live oysters from Washington state, which may have higher levels of bacteria due to a heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. The FDA was quoted as saying, "Oysters from Washington State should be thoroughly cooked," adding the oysters should be boiled in water three to five minutes after the shells open and steaming live oysters four to nine minutes in a steamer that's already steaming. About 40 illnesses were reported in California and Washington state due to the consumption of raw oysters, the FDA said. An additional 100 cases have been reported in British Columbia leading to the closing of harvesting areas in that region. FROM: ProMED-mail<promed@usa.healthnet.org

27 AUGUST: USA WASHINGTON STATE

I just spent the summer working for Chris Thompson at Wash Fish and Wildlife, where one of the projects I was working on was collecting data on seabirds washing up on the beaches on the southern Olympic Peninsula. I recorded over 1500 Common Murres and dozens of other species. Thomas Good <tomgood@falcon.cc.ukans.edu

27 AUGUST: USA CALIFORNIA

I am a biologist at Point Reyes Bird Observatory currently working on the Farallon Islands off San Fransisco and thought you may be interested in recent events possibly concerning ENSO: * 30 year record SST of 19.2 deg.C on 8/26/97 * during 82-83 ENSO SST reached 18.8 deg.C * Mahi Mahi, Swordfish, and large Albacore schools near the islands in August * Warm water conditions did not significantly affect seabird breeding in 1997 as productivity was average for most species. Michelle Hester <hester@prbo.org

28 AUGUST: USA CALIFORNIA

. . . One more note on the cormorant news story. The reason, I think, that this is getting so much attention at this time (it is a chronic problem) is that the numbers of recent hookings (of seabirds, ed) are so high. A lot of us scientists think this is a sign of the El Nino conditions in combination with a good year of productivity from the birds (I know this to be so for brown pelicans at least) and we are waiting for more data. Then another question to ponder: what do you do with all those starving birds that are expected? "Daniel W. Anderson" <dwanderson@ucdavis.edu VIA SEABIRD

28 AUGUST: VIRGIN ISLANDS

I think it's important to place on record the "non-anomalies" as well: our Brown Noddies in the Caribbean had a completely normal breeding season in 1997, and did extremely well (typical for our study site). John Chardine<John.Chardine@EC.GC.CA

28 AUGUST: BRAZIL

My name is Jorge l.B. Albuquerque. I am Prof of Biology and an Ornithologist living in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. My town is an island in south Brazil. I am observing a extensive droughT in our area. All started in our summer (DEC-MAR). It extended until July. Several trees which regularly flower during this season did not produce any flowers. Recently (late May) we experienced a big ocean storm which produced waves up to 3-4 meters along our coast. This was a very unusual event. In August a few rains started. People who are watching El Nino expect lots of rains, inundations by November. Dr. Jorge L.B. Albuquerque <ALBUQUER@if.ufrgs.br

28 AUGUST: CHRISTMAS ISLAND, PACIFIC OCEAN

I have just returned from Johnston Atoll, 16 N 169 W. for the first time since the 1982-83 ENSO when we began working there, there has been no effect from this current ENSO event. Usually I see reduced growth in several species of chicks and increased chick mortality.This has not happenend, although local water water temps. are warmer than ususal. This lack of effects is very unexpected and may be involved with the early onset timing of this event? I have heard from Peru that there is extensive seabird mortality occurring along the coast, and has been for several months. SchreiberE@aol.com

28 AUGUST: CHILE

Our research team has been studying the breeding colony of Humboldt Penguins at Algarrobo, Chile since 1994. While there have been a number of times when heavy rains have effected the breeding success of birds in this colony, the entire colony was washed-out by rains in April-May 1997. Whether this was a random event or associated with this ENSO event is not known. However, we hope this information, looked at as a part of the bigger picture may help determine which is true. Ed Diebold <ediebold@riverbanks.org

28 AUGUST: USA CALIFORNIA

We've been seeing some interesting pelagic birds here on the Central Coast of California over the last couple of weeks; magnificent frigatebirds and the like. I'll forward on posts from the Monterey County rare bird alert when they contain reports of unusual birds that may be associated with El Nino. Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

31 AUGUST: CHILE

CNN reports that Peruvian Brown Pelicans have invaded the town of Arica, northern Chile, swelling the population from 200 to 4,000. Pelicans tie up traffic as they wander down streets looking for food. Many are being run over or dying when they fly into electric lines. (Similar behavior occurred in past ENSO events in Peru when pelicans of the same species would invade markets to scavenge and steal food. Mass mortality of pelicans and other seabirds is a routine result of ENSO events off Peru and Chile.--ed). CNN Web site <http://cnn.com/EARTH/9708/31/chile.elnino/index.html

1 SEPTEMBER: USA CALIFORNIA

warm (68 degrees F) off of Fort Bragg, California and someone caught a sailfish there! This is obviously highly unusual. christine_moen@mail.fws.gov

1 SEPTEMBER: PANAMA

The edge of a very active portion on the ITCZ is just south , ca 80 miles of Panama City with very heavy storm activity on a line from the Costa Rican border eastward touching the Azuero Peninsula and SE Darien provience. To the west, a portion of this very active ITCZ seems to be tearing off forming a Pacific Hurricane. Too early but if so, more Dry weather for Pacific lower Central America. The whole general area is under low pressure so little wind expected but if ITCZ shifts up 80-100 miles to north, then very heavy rain. Neal Smith SMITHN@tivoli.si.edu

18 JULY. PERU

The Peruvian government reinstated a coastwide ban on anchovy fishing, based on lowered harvests related to El Niño conditions. Dow Jones News. --Jeff June <JAJfish@aol.com

8 AUGUST. CHILE

Chilean officials imposed a 30-day ban, beginning August 15, on anchovy fishing in 2 northern regions due to El Niño effects. Dow Jones News. --Jeff June <JAJfish@aol.com

EARLY AUGUST. ALASKA

AP reported that Alaska vessels began delivering albacore tuna to Kodiak processors from a fishery about 1,200 miles south of Kodiak. The unregulated high seas fishery was reported to have grown from about 35 vessels in 1996 to about 200 vessels in 1997. --Jeff June <JAJfish@aol.com

EARLY AUGUST. CALIFORNIA

I forgot to mention that at the beginning of August, there was a sighting of two Magnificent Frigatebirds 1/2 mile off the coast of Rio Del Mar (near Santa Cruz) which puts them just about at the outer edge of the bay. (additional bird records also available).-- Peggi & Ben Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

23 AUGUST. NE PACIFIC

AP reports The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a warning against eating live oysters from WA state, which could have elevated bacterial levels due to warmer waters. About 40 cases of illness in CA and WA as well as another 100 cases in British Columbia have been reported and attributed to consumption of raw oysters. --Jeff June <JAJfish@aol.com. Contact Ben Gale for more info <ben_gale@comlink.DPH.SF.CA

3 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA

AP reports Kodiak AK fishermen fishing on tuna with the SST (Sea surface temperature) in the Gulf of Alaska up to 64 degrees F, rather than the usual 54 - 55 d. Also a pelagic armorhead , normally a fish species of the "central Pacific", was caught off Kodiak. California anchovies were found in salmon (species not given) stomachs off Yakutat, southeast Alaska with SSTs at 63 o, rather than the normal "mid-50s".

3 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE

Re seat-of-the-pants observations on the seabirds nesting on Tatoosh Island, WA during the 97 season (in other words, the data have not been properly worked up yet...), levels of attendance and productivity appear to be at or higher than any other year in the 1990's for species we follow: fork-tailed storm-petrels, glaucous-winged gulls, pelagic and double-crested cormorants, and common murres. No sign of starvation, either adults washing up, or chicks starving. Species composition of fish fed to murre chicks did not change substantively from 1996. Radio-telemetered murre parents foraged within range of our receivers (about 7 -10 km) approximately 80% of the time (i.e. they aren't going very far for food). Breeding phenology was within the range of dates of previous years for all species. In short, the 'obvious' signs of ENSO's effects on upper trophic level marine species: death, decreased attendance, and reproductive failure, were not apparent. Maybe next year. --Julia K. Parrish jparrish@u.washington.edu

3 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA

A Sooty Tern was reported again (last report was in early August), off of the Silver Strand State Beach, between the cities of Imperial Beach and Coronado. The bird was foraging on the ocean side with Elegant Terns, and was later seen flying off to the Southwest over the ocean. --Douglas Aguillard <doug@basiclink.com

3 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA

I was out at Cordell Bank a couple of days ago, and I can't remember ever seeing the water around here so icy blue. Looked like a real desert. Should have seen a few thousand Cassin's Auklets, but probably didn't see 100. Low numbers of everything else as well, except Sabine Gulls moving through. Pretty good numbers of humpbacks and blues. Don't know how they're making a living.--burr@igc.org (Burr Heneman)

3 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE

A 125 lb striped Pacific marlin was caught by two sport albacore fishermen fishing about 20 miles southwest of Westport, Washington. According to the WDFW, it is the first recorded catch of a marlin on sport gear off the Washington Coast. --Jeff June <JAJfish@aol.com

3 SEPTEMBER. CHILE

Karen Gryzbowski and I are members of the team working on a project at Algarrobo (central Chile), and were there this past May and June. We can send you specific dates etc, if you need them, but essentially torrential rains that persisted for approximately 6 weeks caused nearly total abandonment of the colony at Algarrobo. Alejandro Simeone and Mariano Bernal, who have been monitoring the island for us, stated that prior to the storms in May, there were over 200 active nests on the island. By the time I left June 24th, we found one bird with two chicks remaining. ("Island" also includes the rock breakwater extending from the east side of the island). This bird had its nest in a very protected rock crevice on the eastern aspect of the island. Many of the dirt burrows collapsed from the rains, but the waves were so high that a majority of the south side of the island was flooded by the ocean itself. -- Roberta Wallace <rwallace@omnifest.uwm.edu

4 SEPTEMBER. NEVADA

Keep an eye out for official southern Nevada rainfall records. In the last 3 days, several places around here appeared to have gotten 50 to near 100% of their normal annual rainfalls (e.g., Pahrump, NV; 4.5 inches in a few hours).--James L. Boone <jlboone@aol.com, URL: http://members.aol.com/jlboone

4 SEPTEMBER.WASHINGTON STATE

This has been an unusually wet summer on the eastern slope of the Washington Cascades. We've had "significant" (more than a trace) rain events several times each month when our usual pattern is some rain in June, then dry until late September or early October. These rain events haven't been the afternoon thunderstorms that occasionally pop up over the mountains, but seem to be associated with monsoonal flows from the south. Sorry I don't have "hard" data, but that shouldn't be too difficult to obtain. My field crews have been soggy all summer when usually they're dusty.--Ann Camp < aecamp@televar.com

4 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA

We're following ENSO as it develops here in San Diego. From the San Diego view, it's been weird weather. We've had very high humidity, thunderstorms and big floods in the deserts way west (in our desert, not AZ's), with water closing a major freeway in the desert (I-15 near Barstow) in the past week. There have been big thunderhead in San Diego's mountains. We're also experiencing heat, and lots of it and the ocean off here is some 10-20 deg warmer than normal. There are big sport fishing catches of mahi mahi and albacore swimming close to shore! In short, we've turned into the tropics. --Barry Costa Pierce sustain@darwin.bio.uci.edu http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/state/index.html

4 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA

I am 45 miles s. of San Francisco, CA. It is reported on TV weather/news that the waters off San Francisco are unusually warm. One report was 10 degrees F. over normal; another report said 6 degrees F over normal. It is causing problems (potential) for the fish at the Seaquarium (presumably Monterey Aquarium-ed.) in the area as they use sea water in the tanks; and it's hotter than the fish are accustomed to. I live in Half Moon Bay; and some people are complaining about El Niño. They say because the water here is warmer, we are not getting our fog and usual breeze (caused from the cool, ocean air rushing in to the warmer inland air); and that it is muggy even when breezy.--C. W. Gilbert <blazing@igc.apc.org

5 SEPTEMBER. OREGON

It appears as if things are beginning to take off on the Oregon coast, with dead murres starting to wash up. I was informed today by a colleague at our Newport (OR) marine science center that the intake water recently was measured at 68o F, which is phenomenally warm for our coastal waters.-- Jesse Ford fordj@ucs.orst.edu

5 SEPTEMBER. FLORIDA

My observations are anecdotal in the sense that I have made no attempt at comparison to long-term data. However, here in north-central Florida we seem to be experiencing an unusually dry summer. We have not had significant rain in at least 2-3 weeks. Afternoon rainstorms typically are experienced 2-3 per week (or so) but this year seem more sporadic and infrequent.--Terry J. Doonan <tdoonan@hankins.com

5 SEPTEMBER. INDONESIA

You could certainly argue there is an ENSO component to the current forest fires in Indonesia (particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan), and that crop yields in parts of Java may be low due to drier than normal conditions.--Radley Horton <rh142@columbia.edu

6 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA

Rumor among state agencies in California is that the fall run of Chinook up the Sacramento River started during the first week of August. Nearly 7-8 weeks earlier than average. Unfortunately, I do not have confirmation of this as I heard about it from a staffperson at the CA Dep't of Forestry. Perhaps you have contacts in the CA Dep't of Fish and Game that could shed light as to the accuracy of this. Russ and Martha <watrtree@pacbell.net

6 SEPTEMBER. GUATEMALA

I have just come back from my honeymoon in Guatemala (a fantastic time) and have a couple of couple of anomalies there to report. The first is the massive decline in fishing hauls on the Pacific coast this year, a fact which fisherman blame on the anomalously cool waters. The second is a significantly smaller amount of rain falling in the currently building wet season. While this was pleasurable for honeymooners, locals are concerned for the replenishment of above and ground water supplies for the typically grueling dry season ahead. I hasten to note that the source of this information is local newspaper reports and essentially 'word on the street' from locals.-- Andrew Oliphan <oliphana@geog.canterbury.ac.nz, presently at <nicole@lclark.edu

8 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA

Beached emaciated Short-tailed Shearwaters and Thick-billed Murres were found in the Point Hope region of the Chukchi Sea in late August. Reasons for the die-off are unknown as is the magnitude of the event. Representatives of the North Slope Borough Department of Wildlife Management conducted ground counts and collected samples. George J Divoky <ftgjd@aurora.alaska.edu

8 SEPTEMBER, NW USA

AP reports federal fisheries experts told the annual American Fisheries Society meeting that "El Niño" may devastate salmon and other fish stocks on the West Coast. Jim Martin, salmon expert with the Oregon governor's office, said, "We should really pay attention to this one."--GrassRoots: http://www.defenders.org/grnhome.html

8 SEPTEMBER. OREGON

The most notable personal event was yesterday. I body surfed without a wet suit for the first time since 1983 on a local beach. We have some warm water, and more importantly no coastal winds. It was pretty good. Jan Hodder (Charleston OR) <jhodder@oimb-nt.uoregon.edu

8 SEPTEMBER, CALIFORNIA

1- A sea fish (triple tail) was caught off the L.A. coast. This is only the 2nd one caught here on record. According to the reports, the fish is normally found south of 20 oN.

2- A mahi mahi was caught off the San Francisco Bay area.--Steven Young <shy9@earthlink.net

8 SEPTEMBER, WASHINGTON STATE

AP reports that Vibrio parahaemolyticus bacteria have become a problem in west coast shellfish because of recent warm water conditions "associated with the weather trend known as El Niño", leading to a voluntary ban on raw shellfish.

LATE MAY - MID SEPTEMBER. COSTA RICA: CLIMATE

I would like to add to the information on Central America's western coast and the central valley of Costa Rica. Exceptionally dry weather for what is normally out wet or rainy season. Running from mid May through mid December (usually). This year we have gotten much less rain than usual. On the eastern slopes, there has been flooding and much heavier rain than usual. I returned from the coast yesterday where the locals have commented on much higher temperatures than normal (and very rough seas - probably due to Typhoon Linda at the time).--Marcos Bogan-Miller mbogan@sol.racsa.co.cr

28 JULY. ALASKA: MARINE MAMMAL

Elephant seal in Valdez. "We received an initial report on 7/28/97 about a seal hauled out in the small boat harbor of Valdez. the seal turned out to be an elephant seal in molt, likely a juvenile male elephant seal which does molt during that time period and typically would haul out for variable periods of time over the span of 3-4 weeks to complete its molt. However, they are not typically found nearshore in that area of Alaska. We also had reports through 8/12 . It did have some healed scars, perhaps predator bites but was otherwise in apparently good physical condition. I do not have subsequent reports; although after that date we had given people in Valdez more information on why it was there and as a result the reports may have decreased. I do not know the current whereabouts."-- Kaja Brix <Kaja.Brix@noaa.gov

7 SEPTEMBER. PERU AND CHILE: HANTA VIRUS

Media reports 19 cases (nine deaths) of Hanta virus in Punta Arenas, Coihaique, Santiago, Iquique, and Arica, Chile. Peru was taking action against rats in Tacna, a coastal town in Peru. Rainfall in normally desert coastal Peru and northern Chile may have led to major population increases in the rodent vectors of Hanta virus.--ed.)--Dave Coder <dcoder@u.washington.edu from El Comercio and Chip News, via ProMED.

6 - 11 SEPTEMBER. BRITISH COLUMBIA: FISH

Recently, on a salmon fishing trip to Milne Bank Sound, we witnessed some unusual things. According to the fishing guides, we were catching an unusual number of mackerel, 1-3lb. range., These were all caught within 50 meters of the shoreline. The blue shark, (4.5Ft.), caught by my brother was also within the 50m. zone. Regular sightings of large "SUN" fish, I personally saw 4, were not unusual.But having them in the area apparently is. Water temp. was not measured except by feel, I think it was warm enough to swim in, comfortably. Noticeable lack of water fowl.--Erik Virs <evirs@direct.ca

EARLY SEPTEMBER. JAPAN: FISH

"Just last week, a Tiger Shark was reported just north of Wakinosawa, Japan. This was in the local newspapers and was caught by the local fisherman in their nets."--Dave Beacham <daveman@panama.c-com.net

9 SEPTEMBER. PAPUA NEW GUINEA: CLIMATE

Drought and frost have devastated agriculture, especially coffee and palm oil, in the PNG highlands. Mining operations have also ceased because of low water levels. The drought is the worst in 25 years, in an area where normal rainfalls are more on the order of 10 meters/year.from Reuters.

9 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE: FISH

Washington State- Unusual records of fishes continue after the landing of a striped marlin last week (first state record, northern range extension. There have been several unconfirmed reports of yellowfin tuna off Pacific Beach and the Columbia River, a likely report of yellowtail from Westport, many reports of Pacific mackerel off the coast and in Puget Sound, possible California Barracuda off Willipa Bay, and ocean sunfish as far north as Neah Bay. None of these are range extensions but certainly responses to El Ni=F1o.--Wayne A. Palsson <palsswap@dfw.wa.gov

9 SEPTEMBER. BRAZIL: CLIMATE

We have been a very hot and dry late winter here in southeastern Brazil. Temperatures at Sao Paulo city have been commonly at 30 C and sometimes over during the past weeks, and air moisture has been unusually low, having reached around 15% several times during the past week, something unrecorded before. Overall the winter has been warm above average, with temperatures over 25C common at the coast during most days. We are still waiting for rain; low moisture levels have helped some (usually very humid) Atlantic forest areas to burn along the coast.--Fabio Olmos & Rita Cerqueira Ribeiro de Souza <guara@nethall.com.br

EARLY SEPTEMBER. BRAZIL: CLIMATE

Rio de Janeiro recorded its hottest winter day in 75 years and hottest day since 1984 at 108o F, a result of a strong high pressure zone that blocks cold fronts during ENSO events.--Earthweek, Chronicle Features.

10 SEPTEMBER. BRAZIL: SEABIRD

I have not seen as many Brown Boobies as I did last year in the beaches of =46lorianopolis, Santa Catarina, south Brazil. This species breeds here on one island off coast. Jorge L.B. Albuquerque <ALBUQUER@if.ufrgs.br

10 SEPTEMBER. COLORADO: CLIMATE

This summer at the foot of the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado Springs) has been much wetter than normal. Our vegetation is still green while it is usually brown at this point in the season most years.--Jim Ebersole <jebersole@cc.colorado.edu

10 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: MARINE TURTLE

We have also had a report of a 400 lb turtle caught in a seine net off of Gravina Is in southern southeast AK. It was live and was released. No other information provided. No spp ID.--Kaja Brix <Kaja.Brix@noaa.gov

10 SEPTEMBER. AUSTRALIA: CLIMATE, SOCIAL IMPACT

Roger Stone, an agricultural climatologist with the Queensland government, suggested that "extreme statements' from scientists about the coming ENSO event had triggered suicides in the Australian agricultural community. Recent rains have broken a drought that had threatened eastern Australia's wheat crop. Officials still predict a 28 % reduction in winter crops compared to the previous year. Stone suggested that there is not a direct relationship between strength of an ENSO event and rainfall in Australia, so the present event may not spell doom for Australia's crops. He gave no details of the alleged ENSO-triggered suicides. after Reuters

10 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: FISH

A 70 lb Opah, Lampris regius, was caught recently by a local party boat. I think too much is being made of opah landings as ENSO indicators as this species follows "warm" currents throughout the temperate and subtropical Pacific. Other more unusual sightings are more significant: blue sharks closer to our shores, albacore two miles to shore as opposed to the expected 40 miles, numerous sightings of Orcas, more frequent leatherback turtle sightings. I would like to confirm the early pulse of Sacramento River Fall Run Chinook returning unusually early (6-8 weeks). This was confirmed today by a colleague at the Cal Dept of Water Resources. However until the full run is accounted for over time we won't know the significance of the early numbers. Without question the seas are very warm: we are averaging 16-18 degrees C. Normally we could expect an average around 12-14 with the occasional drop to 10. We have heard of sea surface temps as high as 20 close to shore but I can't confirm this. Last night at 7:30 I took a swim in the cove on the Lab's property and I was sweating in my wet suit. There was a juvenile young-of-the-year gray whale in the cove which is unusual for this time of year. I wanted to see if there was an out-of-season bloom of some prey item like one of the larger crustaceans but the I didn't see anything out of the ordinary other than unusually dense phytoplankton.--Paul Siri <pasiri@ucdavis.edu

10 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: FISH

Some information regarding the current warm water influx into the waters off the coast of southern California. Indications of a strong El Ni=F1o hav= e become more apparent in the last few weeks, particularly within the Santa Barbara Channel. Hammerhead sharks (a warm water species seldom seen this far north) have been sighted between Anacapa Island and Yellow Banks (Smugglers Cove), Santa Cruz Island. Yellowfin tuna are consistently being caught off Santa Barbara Island (this is a subtropical species - commercial and recreational landings of yellowfin tuna increased dramatically during the 82-83 El Ni=F1o when large numbers migrated into the SCB from waters off Mexico). Water temperatures in the Channel are unusually warm. The huge balls of krill, seen consistently at this time of year (especially during the last few years) when the blue/fin/humpbacks arrive in the area, have not been seen. Most of the boats that are consistently out at the northern Channel Islands have not seen the numbers of whales they have in the past few years at this time. Most of this information has been obtained from local fisherman.--Rick Spaulding rlspaulding@oees.com

11 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON, D.C.: GOVERNMENT

FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will meet 14 - 15 October in Los Angeles with 28 federal agencies to prepare a response to potential ENSO problems, like increased typhoon risk for Hawaii, wet and cold winters for the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, and floods in California.-- Knight-Ridder Newspapers

11 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: SEABIRD

A preliminary cruise of our data shows record densities of adult marbled murrelets in Prince William Sound in June-July 1997. Unlike previous years, most of the highest counts were in early June instead of late July. The density of juveniles in July-August, however, was roughly equal to or lower than in 1994-96. One possibility is that murrelets came into the Sound from other areas. The murrelets were feeding primarily on sand lance and juvenile herring-- both of which appeared to be more available, if later, than in the past. Also more numerous were mixed-species foraging flocks, with murrelets sometimes in the hundreds. Altogether a different kind of summer on several levels--particularly the t-shirt and sandals working conditions.--Kathy Kuletz (kathy_kuletz@mail.fws.gov)

12 SEPTEMBER. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: FISH

I mentioned previously that tuna was running here early. I got the story from a good source today. It is albacore; and it usually begins to run here in August, but this year it started running in June. That is, the local fisherman have been catching it since June.--C. W. Gilbert <blazing@igc.org

12 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRD

The following is a report from the Monterey Bay RBA for September 12 th: A late report was received today of a FRIGATEBIRD seen by a kayaker off of Cannery Row on Wednesday.--Peggi Ben & Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

13 SEPTEMBER. PAPUA NEW GUINEA: CLIMATE, SOCIAL IMPACT

PNG highlanders are abandoning their villages as drought and brush fires devastate crops in the worst drought in 50 years. They are reportedly eating wild berries and tubers normally reserved for pigfood. The local press claim that forty people are said to have died of starvation but the government denies these reports. The situation appears chaotic, with limited communication with the Highlands and with supply planes unable to land because of smoke from fires. The Red Cross expects conditions to continue to deteriorate over the next few months. from Reuters

13 SEPTEMBER. SOUTHERN AFRICA: CLIMATE

Southern Africa's rainfall is expected to be normal this year in Tanzania, Malawi and Mauritius, but below normal in South Africa, southern Mozambique, Lesotho, and Swaziland, because of the ongoing ENSO event. Not all ENSO events cause drought in southern Africa. Drought conditions usually begin later in the growing season. based on a a report by Emelia Sithole, Reuters.

13 SEPTEMBER. NEW ZEALAND: SEABIRD

I am not sure whether this is relevant, but I have been closely monitoring a population of yellow-eyed penguins since 1980. 1)The 1982-83 El Ni=F1o was a non event for this species. 2)There was a diet switch (preferred food absent) in 1985-86 which resulted in about 15% adult mortality, and all of the juveniles from the 1984 cohort. As far as we are aware only one chick appears to have survived from the 1985-86 cohort. 3)In 1989-90, 52% of all adult birds died. We really do not know why, although it has been suggested that this was avian malaria. Because most of the adults died prior to their chicks fledging, again we have only ever recovered two 1989-90 chicks on the whole of the mainland of New Zealand. 4) In late Dec 1996 two breeding adults died unexpectedly. A further two deaths early January led to autopsies. These birds and another 80 odd breeding adults died by the end of February. These birds showed the same symptoms- or lack of them as did the mortality of 1989-90. We suspect a biotoxin-Okadaic Acid??????. Deaths peaked in the second week of =46ebruary--most chicks got away. Another 26 birds died, mainly from foot injuries caused by sharks?. A fisherman observed that it was "wall to wall" blue sharks around the Otago Peninsula. Mean weight of unexplained deaths was 4.5 kg. Starvation weights for this species are 2.7-3.2.-- John Darby <john.darby@clear.net.nz

14 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRD, FISH

Some ENSO news from the Farallones: Sea surface temperature hit a 30-year (since PRBO occupation) record of 19.4 C at Southeast Farallon Island off San Francisco on 28 August, although this apparently was not directly related to the upcoming ENSO. One recent theory has it that the lack of a marine layer this August is what caused the water to become so warm off California. What caused the lack of a marine layer is a big question; it may be indirectly related to the ENSO event, e.g., through shifting, Pacific-wide pressure centers. =46airly persistent northwest winds have cooled it off to about 17 C during the past week, which is still setting records for August. There have been no tropical seabirds (boobies, frigates, tropics) here yet but we're looking hard. The big news for seabirds here is the continued return of Pacific sardines, aided by (but perhaps not directly related to) warm-water events. With this year's warm water there have been more sardines than ever. Large flocks of Brandt's Cormorants (~20K), Western Gulls (~8K) and diving Brown Pelicans (~2K) have been feeding around the island continuously on sardines (as confirmed with baitfish jigs) for the past two weeks. For the first time this year I have also seen Tufted Puffins feeding near the island - on sardines - and bringing them into nest crevices. This could well be the start of a return by puffins here to abundances recorded before the sardine crash (e.g., thousands recorded by Dawson in 1911).--Peter Pyle <prbo@seismo.geo.berkeley.edu

16 SEPTEMBER. BERING SEA: SEABIRD

Shearwaters are 20 -30 % underweight, with a shift of diet from adult euphausiids to juvenile euphausiids and squid. Shearwater numbers are down several orders of magnitude and there appears to be substantial mortality. Waters are milky green because of coccolithophore blooms. Summary of phone conversation with George Hunt <glhunt@uci.edu

16 SEPTEMBER. PERU: CLIMATE, FISH, SEABIRD

Tumbes, northern Peru. "I live in the beach, in the northmost point in Peru. Sea surface temperatures are 5 C higher than normal. Most of the days are sunny. We are getting scattered rains eventually. There is high mortality rate in pelicans probably due to the lack of food. Fishermen are turning to shrimp instead of the normal cold water species."--Gerd Burmester <burmest@mail.cosapidata.com.pe

16 SEPTEMBER. PACIFIC OCEAN: OCEANOGRAPHY

Pacific Ocean sea-surface height measurements and atmospheric water vapor information taken from two independent Earth-orbiting satellites are providing more convincing evidence that the weather-disrupting phenomenon known as El Ni=F1o is back and strong= . "The new data collected since April 1997 confirm what we had earlier speculated upon and what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted -- a full-blown El Ni=F1o condition is established in the Pacific," said Dr. Lee-Lueng Fu, project scientist for the U.S./French satellite TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, CA. "The recent data are showing us that a large warm water mass with high sea-surface elevations, about six inches (15 centimeters) above normal, is occupying the entire tropical Pacific Ocean east of the international date line. In fact, the surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-a-half times the size of the continental United States," Fu said. "We watched this warm water mass travel eastward from the western Pacific along the equator earlier this spring. Right now, sea-surface height off the South American coast is 10 inches (25 centimeters) higher than normal, which is comparable with the conditions during the so-called 'El Ni=F1o of the century' in 1982-83." In addition, recent atmospheric water vapor data collected from NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) show tell-tale signs of an El Ni=F1o condition in the tropical Pacific Ocean. "The Microwave Limb Sounder experiment on UARS is detecting an unusually large build-up of water vapor in the atmosphere at heights of approximately eight miles (12 kilometers) over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Not since the last strong El Ni=F1o winter of 1991-92 have we seen such a large build-up of water vapor in this part of the atmosphere," said JPL's Dr. William Read. "Increased water vapor at these heights can be associated with more intense wintertime storm activity from the 'pineapple express', a pattern of atmospheric motions that brings tropical moisture from Hawaii to the southwestern United States."--NASA press release.

On-going NOAA advisories on El Ni=F1o conditions are available on the Internet at: URL: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/index.html

NO DATE: MIDWEST USA: CLIMATE

Visit this url for information on the effects of ENSO on the Midwestern US:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/elnino.html

DECEMBER. SOUTHERN AFRICA: GOVERNMENT

The Southern African Development Community will hold two meetings in December to assess the effect of ENSO this year.

17 ECUADOR. GALAPAGOS: CLIMATE

El Niño in Galapagos, an unusual one. It started in February-to-March with a prolonged warm season. This is, SST and air temperature with an anomaly of +4-5 degrees (26-28 degree instead a 21-22 in normal years). Air temperature follow the sea here in Galapagos, same patterns in ENSO years. February, March, May and April behaved as a strong ENSO (thermocline down to 200 feet), SST up to 29-30 degree in places and heavy rainfall between March-June. But the rain stopped in July. SST carried on like ENSO but no rainfall, almost as dry as a normal year. In fact this month is behaving as should be, "garua season" or misty/drizzle season. The sea is unusually heavy, with big waves and strong wind, and extremely high tides. No clear effects on seabirds and mammals. No mortalities of marine iguanas. Heavy fishing (lots of it illegal), some warm waters species of fish moved into the internal waters (dolphinfish, wahoo, billfish), that normally are only found in the northern side of the archipelago. Good year for finches.--Rodrigo H. Bustamante <rbustama@fcdarwin.org.ec.

17 SEPTEMBER. CHILE: HANTA VIRUS

The outbreak of Hanta virus (60% mortality, 19 cases) appears to be centered in the south, around Aysen, with one mortality from Arica in the desert North. The outbreak appears associated with population explosions of rats.--ProMED-mail <promed@usa.healthnet.org.

17 SEPTEMBER. PERU: CLIMATE

During (June 12 to August 12) geoarchaeological field studies of ENSO-induced paleoflood deposits in the region of Puerto Ilo (c. 17 degrees S. Lat.), the following anomalous conditions were observed: unusually high daily temperatures; high incidents of coastal winds out of the north, versus south; a high incidence of sunny days and clear nights versus normally foggy conditions below 1500 masl; an incident of day time showers on the Clemsi desert between Moquegua and Arequipa; the lowest snow fall levels in the Arequipa region "in a generation." Desert stands of lomas vegetation, normally sustained by fogs, were not blooming, and cormorants had begun starving by mid August. In August there were a number of very severe day-time dust storms in the Ilo region unlike anything I observed during the 82-83 or 72-73 El Niño events.--M.E. Moseley <moseley@anthro.ufl.edu.

17 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: BIRDS

This summer has been much wetter than normal here in Modoc County, and from Pacific Northwest storms, not the usual summer thunderstorms. Northern goshawk breeding success was very low this year throughout northeastern California, with many pairs moving to new nests or disappearing (perhaps not breeding at all). 82-83 goshawk records are sparse, but it looks like 82 was an average year, 83 was a good year.--Matt Schweich <matttwd@hdo.net.

17 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: FISH

Some information from a conversation I had today with Bob Johnson, ADF&G Sport Fish biologist out of Yakutat, Alaska:Great White shark - seen in Yakutat Bay among commercial nets Blue Shark - also seen in Yakutat BayYellowfin Tuna - washed ashore near Yakutat - to my knowledge neverbefore seen this far northAlso several sightings in the Situk River of an unusual bright yellow fish.-- Susan Walker <sue_walker@mail.fws.gov

18 SEPTEMBER. NAMIBIA, SOUTH AFRICA: SEABIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS

numbers. Other seabird numbers also low but do not appear to be as worse for wear.--Bruce Nothing manifesting itself w.r.t ENSO affecting birds as yet. I imagine it will. Poor anchovy this year resulted in fewer numbers of birds breeding, most notable being swift terns. Very little rain in SW Cape this winter may be ENSO related. Are you aware of the shift in pelagic fish distribution in Namibia. Seems that they shifted northward and into southern Angola. Seals were first to respond and relocated and formed new colonies near Cunene. Some Crocodiles in rivers in southern Angola don't quite know how to deal with seals invading their habitat. Gannetries in Namibia crashed with numbers esp. at Ichaboe now occurring at very low Dyer <BDYER@sfri.wcape.gov.za

18 SEPTEMBER. DENMARK: SEABIRDS

In the North Atlantic breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) gave up breeding in the Faroe Islands around the 25 th of July this year. Almost no young were produced. About 500.000 breeding birds moved away from the islands. An extensive survey taking place in August documented that these birds did no go to the sea around the Faroe Islands but disappeared altogether from the sea between 60N-5E and 63N-10W. Observations from bird observatories in Denmark indicate that Kittiwakes have been very few this year in the eastern North Sea.--Bergur Olsen berguro@frs.fo Satellite imagery suggest that the North Atlantic surface water is 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than in normal years. This could well influence seabird food distribution, perhaps causing our observed Kittiwake breeding failure.--Jan Durinck <oc-marin@inet.uni-c.dk, http://inet.uni-c.dk/~ornis.

18 SEPTEMBER. PAPUA NEW GUINEA: CLIMATE.

This is a status report from some friends that live in PAPUA New Guinea, Iwill try to have them send me more information directly from the Newspapers. "...this El Niño we are having is really doing a number on this country (PNG). There is really bad drought and frost in the highlands, and they are actually running short on food and water. It has been a very long time since it has been this bad I guess. This country is a very abundant country with food. They rarely have problems with hunger like some of the other third world countries. They have really been hit hard. Where we are at (Madang) we have been one of the more fortunate places in that we got 2 inches of rain a few weeks ago which topped off all the water tanks, so we will make it through the course without having to cart water up from the river. Many other places around us though are much much drier."-- Pat Earley <earl@nosc.mil.

18 SEPTEMBER. OREGON: CLIMATE

Three tornadoes occurred in the past few days. Although not unusual, veryuncommon, especially three in less than a week. In my 20+ yrs living in Oregon, very few tornadoes have beenobserved. And especially unique in the valley. The location of the tornadoes was in/near Salem Oregon, about 50 miles south of Portland.--Tom Repasky <repasky@northwest.com.

18 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: CLIMATE

Coastal central AK rarely has thunderstorms. It is usually too cool. This year Anchorage has had five, including a major one today, with waterspouts reported off Kodiak.--David Duffy <afdcd1@uaa.alaska.edu

19 SEPTEMBER. FLORIDA: CLIMATE

I am a biologist doing long term monitoring of coastal waterbirds in southwest Florida. I have access to water level and rainfall data for Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary (interior fresh water wetlands) for 35 years. In comparing 1997 water levels (these levels parallel rainfall) to 1982 I get the best match of graph curves of any of the 35 years. Early (Feb.) and strong dry-down, then levels going up strongly (June) and peaking 5 months early. This is a very unusual pattern. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the year brings. I haven't looked at the bird data to see if there is any kind of correlation yet.--Ted Below <roost@water.net

21 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE: FISH

I recently heard a rumor that a Marlin was caught off of Vancouver Island and a shark was caught off of Lummi Island (out of Bellingham, WA).--Eric Turner <n8843112@cc.wwu.edu

21 SEPTEMBER. TEXAS: CLIMATE

Austin. For the entire month of August we failed to reach the 100 degree air temperature mark. I cannot remember this ever happening.-- John Williams <will622@austin360.com.

21 SEPTEMBER. NEW MEXICO: CLIMATE

Average annual rainfall for Albuquerque is 8.88 inches, which has now been exceeded by 2.17 inches - not a lot by some standards but it's one-fourth of the yearly average in our arid high desert country. In a discussion last week with the NWS people here, I was told that this is within the normal variability for this area.However.....that was before Hurricane Linda - an El Niño event,according to the news. In tracking outflow from Linda on the GOES EastPac satellite (infrared, water vapor) this past week, the additional 0.63 inches between 09/10/97 and 09/19/97 is directly attributable to the hurricane. More rain is forecast this weekend (9/20/97) as the midwestern remnants of Linda are pushed down with the Canadian cold front. This may dislodge the stationary high over us which has kept Nora from moving much.I am watching Nora for more of this same activity as the moisturecontinues to flow up from Mexico in this prolonged monsoon season.Oh, yeah, we're a lot cooler, too, and degree days are way down (data available from NWS and NCDC).--Alice Gomez <myadesta@aol.com.

21 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: FISH

Received a report through Bob Johnson, ADF&G Sport Fish Biologist inYakutat that last week (September 15 - 18) a charter operator spotted an Ocean Sunfish one mile offshore of Ocean Cape near Yakutat, Alaska (59N/140W). Perhaps the furthest sighting of this species both to the both N and W?--Sue Walker < sue_walker@mail.fws.gov

22 SEPTEMBER. WORLDWIDE: FISHMEAL

Aquaculture businesses worldwide are waiting to see how El Niño will affect supplies and prices of fish meal, with an especially wary eye on the situation for anchoveta fish meal which originate principally from Peru and Chile. According to the FAO, in 1995, poultry farms accounted for 50% of global consumption of fish meal followed by swine (25%) and aquaculture (15%).Water temperatures in Peruvian anchovy fishing areas are running1.7-5.3 degrees above normal. Reports from fisheries indicate anchovies are migrating south to escape the warm waters, and Peru's loss may be Chile's gain. However, anchovy fishing in Chile has been hampered by very bad weather. Alternative sources of fish meal such as capelin meal from Iceland and Denmark are much higher priced.In the July 1997 issue of Fish Farming International, decreasedanchoveta catches were tabulated with previous El Niño events as follows:
 
 
 
 
 
 

It is forecast that fishing companies will hold onto their stocks of fish meals and speculate on obtaining higher prices in the coming months, which could mean sharply increased costs of fish and shrimp feeds for aquaculture farmers in 1998.--Barry A. Costa-Pierce <aquaecos@cts.com.

22 SEPTEMBER. PERU: CLIMATE

The past week Puno had temperatures of 20 C (high for area) and no rain. Arequipa had moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms. Moderate rains on the coast between Atico and Camaná (Dept. Arequipa) with some landslides. Amazonia, normally hot had above normal temperatures. Light rains in Piura, but heavy rains in Machala, Ecuador. In Lima, August was a warm month. September has turned out to be cool (not cold) month with the typical "garúa" or light drizzle. However, we are having frequent constant light rain all night and part of the day. The fishermen at Chorillos (just south of downtown Lima) are practically out of work due to lack of cold water fish. The same is true along most of the Peruvian coast. Yesterday, Marcona (near Nazca) had more than 40 hours of drizzle rain and has affected dirt roads and local houses not built for rain in a desert coast where supposedly it never rains.The Servicio Nacional de Meterologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI) statesthat sea temperature is 3 to 4 degrees above normal. It is being predicted that heavy rains may start occurring as early as October/November and that El Niño may last until next March. Also devastating drught and below zero temperatures in the high parts of Puno, Cuzco, Huancavelica, Ayacucho. Twenty additional weather stations have been installed in Cuzco, Abancay (Huancavelica) and Madre de Dios.--Manuel Plenge <MAPlenge@southernperu.com.pe

5 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE: CLIMATE

Official report from Washington Dept of Fish and Wildlife dive team: "Divers encountered uncommonly warm water near Sekiu, with temperatures as high as 61 degrees at a depth of 40 feet." Sekiu is on the Washington coast at the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Normal temperature is 46 to 48 for this time--Hal Beattie <BEATTJHB@dfw.wa.gov

10 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: FISH

I was on a halibut charter out of Homer a couple of weeks ago with my brother and brother-in-law when we came across an Ocean Sunfish. We were in the central part of Cook Inlet due west of Kachemak Bay. Unfortunately, it didn't stay at the surface long enough for a photo. We sighted the characteristic bullet-shaped blob with the dorsal fin flopping at the surface. When we got to within 60 ft, it dove and swam away using both dorsal and ventral fins. Here are the specifics: 59 27.60 N, 152 38.14 W, Temp. = 57.2 F (from a Furuno fathometer, no estimate on accuracy), Depth = 205 ft.--Robert Suryan <robert_suryan@mail.fws.gov

16 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRDS

Monterey Bay Area Pelagic Trips reported Manx and Flesh-footed , Black-vented shearwaters, Black-footed Albatross, and Craveris' Murrelet. The water temps in Monterey Bay have been averaging 10 degrees F higher than normal. This is causing the colder water in the bay's deep trench to cease its normal upwelling. As a result, there is some concern that the birds will suffer due to lack of food. This is because the fish are diving deeper to obtain their own sustenance.--Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

18 SEPTEMBER. PERU: MALARIA

ENSO is given as the cause of warming temperatures and a malaria outbreak in El Valle de la Convencion, north of Cuzco ( I believe this is in the area between Macchu Pichu and Cuzco.--ed). Higher temperatures have allowed increased populations of Anopheles and other mosquitoes. Numbers of malaria cases range from 4,000 to 10,000--from Dave Coder <dcoder@u.washington.edu on ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

19 SEPTEMBER. CHILE AND PERU: HANTA VIRUS

Chile reports 23 cases (14 fatal) of hanta virus in both the northern and southern ends of the country, with a possible (but unverified) case in Vina del Mar in the center. Peru reports a possible case, in Mollendo, southern Peru, a Chilean. (Unfortunately Peruvian, Ecuadorian and Chilean authorities are treating the disease as one that can spread from region to region. In reality it is instead a disease likely to 'lurk' in rodent populations, emerging only sporadically, such as when rodent populations balloon during rainfalls associated with ENSO events. It is not clear that this has happened. Reports on rodent populations from western South America would be very useful--ed) --from Dave Coder <dcoder@u.washington.edu and Mario Cornejo <mcornejg@ucsm.edu.pe on ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

20 SEPTEMBER. INDONESIA: CHOLERA

At least 154 people have died in Irian Jaya, eastern Indonesia, because of "drinking unsanitary water after rivers in the area ran dry."-- Robert A. LaBudde <ral@lcfltd.com, excerpted from FSNET (D. Powell,Univ. Guelph) on ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

20 SEPTEMBER. COSTA RICA: DENGUE FEVER

Since August, western Costa Rica has had five confirmed and 12 suspected cases of hemorrhagic dengue fever, the worst outbreak since 1993. Hemorrhagic dengue fever occurs in those who have had dengue in the past, potentially 30,000 Costa Ricans. --from Dave Coder <dcoder@u.washington.edu on ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

22 SEPTEMBER. VENEZUELA: DENGUE FEVER

An extension of the rainy season is being blamed for a 40% increase in dengue fever compared to last year in the Federal District and Miranda State. --from Dave Coder <dcoder@u.washington.edu on ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

23 SEPTEMBER. CHRISTMAS ISLAND/KARITIMATI: CLIMATE

Christmas Island, Pacific Ocean. Unusual heavy rains began in May 1997 and continue through September, an estimated 1 3/4 meters so far.--B.A. Schreiber <SchreiberE@aol.com

23 SEPTEMBER. MALDIVES: CLIMATE

I am very interested in the 1997 ENSO, especially as insofar as it has any implications for Maldives where I reside and study the reefs. The water has been unseasonably warm here since April although coral bleaching has become less frequent since June.--William Allison <maadheli@dhivehinet.net.mv

23 SEPTEMBER. IDAHO: INSECTS

I do not know if this is El Niño related but there have been an increase in bees this year. Yellow jackets have been eating fruit while on the bushes. Garden Valley and even Boise, Idaho had an increase in bees. In Boise, there has been an increase in calls to exterminators and some people have been hauled out in the ambulance. The bees, mainly Yellow jackets, have been mean, they sting people even when they are not being bothered.-- Pepe Barton (email address was lost).

23 SEPTEMBER. NEW YORK: MARINE TURTLES

The purpose of this report results from reading the information in the web site and beginning to try to think of reasons for a shift in sea turtle (Chelonia, Lepidochelys, Carretta, Dermochely) movements and occurrence in the New York Bight. The numbers of turtles captured is significantly reduced (by at least 1 order of magnitude) and leatherback sea turtles completely bypassed the region on the move north. These are events that I have not observed in over 20 years of field work. It may have nothing to do with the El Niño event but it may be an interesting coincidence. What do people think?--Samuel S. Sadove <bphysa1@pipeline.com

23 SEPTEMBER. TEXAS: CLIMATE

I visited Corpus Christi Wed. Sept. 18, 1997, and was told that this Sept. was the second hottest, driest Sept. on record.--Lynton S. Land <lynton@mail.utexas.edu

23 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: FISH

Palos Verdes: Dorado, Mahi-Mahi, at N34, W118, water temperature: 74F, sighted within 3 miles of shore. Bill Andrus <bandrus@alanprefab.com

23 SEPTEMBER. CHILE AND PERU: FISHERIES

The fishmeal industries of Chile and Peru have been hard hit by a sharp fall in fish stocks as a result of El Nino's warming effect on seawater. Analysts predict that this season's output from both country will decline by about 20% or more. Mainland China has increased purchases of fishmeal from both countries to a record 300,000 mt during April through June, up 50% from the same period last year. The mixed feed industries in Europe and North America are using a greater proportion of soy meal in place of fish meal in their products.-- JAJfish@aol.com (INFOFISH No. 17/97).

24 SEPTEMBER. TENNESSEE: CLIMATE

The weather in Tennessee this year and all across the southeast United States, for the most part has been cooler than normal. Tennessee has also received more rain than average this year and with the remaining time left in the year will have a significant difference if the pattern continues--Bill Larson
<blarson@compu.net

24 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRDS

Some observations from some recent cruises off central California, but first, be aware that SSTs off California have been gradually climbing during the past decades, so that even w/o ENSO, often they are warmer than they were during the GREAT ENSO of 1982/83. Truly SSTs off here are warm now, reaching 19 C inshore, 17-18 C off the shelf.

We have a paper about to be published (Schwing et al. 1997, in Calif Coop Ocean Fish Investig Reports) that reviews the physical and biological oceanography off central and southern Calif during the past few years. Included are "invasions" of several seabird species usually around off Mexico and central America: Parkinson's Petrel, Dark-rumped Petrel (several) and Swallow-tailed Gull, etc.

Most recently, on cruises, we have detected three patterns: 1) continued invasion of warm-water birds to waters off San Francisco (fish, too, but other folks have been reporting those): RB tropicbird, Least Storm-petrel and more Black Storm-petrels than usual; 2) an almost complete absence of birds in waters deeper than 2000 m (i.e., life has moved to the shelf break and nearer to shore); and 3) evidence of increased mortality (i.e. floating dead bodies) of alcids (murres and auklets) but not other species present (gulls, shearwaters).-- David Ainley <harveyecology @worldnet.att.net

24 SEPTEMBER. WISCONSIN: CLIMATE

RACINE COUNTY: Only on 3 days all summer did the temperature reach 95F. Lilacs that normally are in full bloom by May 15 did not bloom until late June. Some lilac blooms still visible in July.-- Craig Murdoch <CMurdoch@inhouse.com

24 SEPTEMBER. SOUTH AFRICA: FISHERIES

I am a recreational fisherman in the Atlantic Ocean off Cape Town in South Africa.We have started catching large amounts of Long-fin tuna and Yellow-fin tuna.This is normally the case off this coast, only it has come very early in the year.--Greg Ollerhead <css@iafrica.com

25 SEPTEMBER. INDONESIA: CLIMATE

WWF reports that up to 600,000 hectares of Indonesia have burned during the current drought, causing air pollution and health problems in neighboring countries. The fire is affecting forest that is usually too dry to burn. ENSO is believed to have delayed the onset of the monsoons that would stop the fires--after World Wildlife Fund <http://www.panda.org/news/press/news_151.htm

25 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRDS

Our crew has been conducting seabird surveys in the nearshore waters off Eureka, CA. I've been collecting seabird species/numbers, SST's and other climatological data since May of this year. My files contain almost daily nearshore SST's, winds and sea states. We did get some interesting species this year. The really neat critter was two black-footed albatross.--Dennis Therry <dennis_therry@mail.fws.gov

25 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE and BRITISH COLUMBIA: SEABIRDS

On Thu, 25 Sep 1997, Tracee Geernaert wrote: ...He was birding in Jervis Inlet (mainland side across from Comox,B.C.) in August I think and saw a Brown Pelican from the vessel. I can't beat Jervis Inlet but Brown Pelicans are sure covering a lot more ground than usual. I got a call from a John Rawls who saw three at the south end of Whidbey Island (off Skatchet Head) on Sunday, September 21.--Kelly Mcallister <mcallkrm@dfw.wa.gov in <tweeters@u.washington.edu via Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

25 SEPTEMBER. FIJI: CLIMATE AND FISH

I thought you might be interested in observations I have made during a recent diving cruise I made this month in the Fiji-Tonga region of the western Pacific. I am a physicist at Brookhaven National Lab, so I am not an expert in oceanography, meteorology, or biology, but I can tell you what I observed, for what it's worth. I just returned from a diving trip on a live-aboard dive boat (the Matagi Princess II). We departed Savusavu, Fiji 9-Sept-97 and arrived in Nufu'alofa, Tonga on 12-Sept. We cruised around the Tongatapu and Ha'apai Island Groups until 19-Sept. The purpose of the cruise was to sight, photograph, and dive with humpback whales during their stay in Tonga for mating and calving.We encountered about 80 whales during that cruise over the region cited. Estimated whale population before the trip was about 300, but probably the real number was greater than that due to our frequency of sightings over such a large area of ocean. The weather conditions for that time period (9-Sept to 19-Sept) were apparently unusual for that time of year. It was supposed to be the relatively dry, sunny season. But it was overcast the whole time (except for a few brief hours of hazy sun) and there were frequent rain squalls and lots of rain. Winds were generally south to southeast and strong (15-35 knots) and seas were rough much of the time, with 1 meter - 1.5 meter swells and frequent chop on top of that. Air temperature was about 69-70F during the day. Water temperature in the Tonga area was about 73F, which I think is cold for that time of year. Water temperature around Taveuni Island, Fiji was 77F during the same time. Also while we were in Tonga, we heard reports that Fiji was getting similar rainy and cloudy weather.

Fish life on the Tongan coral reefs seemed fairly sparse, but I never dove there before so I don't know what the norm is. Fijian reefs seemed reasonably lively to me, but much coral damage, probably due to previous cyclones. I heard that there had been a cyclone there recently.--Joseph F. Muratore <MURATORE@BNLAD0.RHIC.BNL.GOV
 
17 SEPTEMBER. PANAMA: CORAL

Gulf of Chiriqui, Panama, 7o49'N, 81o46"W. Significant coral bleaching was observed on 17 September 1997 at Uva Island in the Gulf of Chiriqui, Pacific Panama. All zooxanthellate scleractinian coral species were affected, at all depths (no corals present 20 m). The most severely bleached (completely white) colonies still had extended polyps and no signs of algal overgrowth, suggesting the event occurred relatively recently. Most colonies of the hydrocoral Millepora intricata (the only common species of the genus remaining after the 1982-83 ENSO) were already dead and covered with a thin algal film, suggesting they may have bleached earlier than the scleractinians.--Andrew Baker <abaker@rsmas.miami.edu, Juan MatE, Peter Glynn

25 SEPTEMBER. RUSSIA: HANTA VIRUS

TASS reports a hanta virus, causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, has killed one person and infected more than 160 people in the Orenburg area north of Volgograd. Climatic conditions have produced an "unprecedented" and "massive' spread of mice, probably the reservoir of the virus.--ProMED@usa.healthnet.org

28 SEPTEMBER. OREGON: FISH

Depoe Bay, Oregon, 44.85 n, 124.03 w: Six yellow fin tuna caught by fishermen. Water temperature: 62 deg.We usually only catch Albacore tuna. Also we have not seen any Gray whales along the coast for two weeks. This is the last month or so of the summer feeding season.--Al Vanderford <captal@netbridge.net

28 SEPTEMBER. CALIFORNIA: FISH

I am a fisheries biologist in Humboldt County, California. During an adult salmonid migration survey on Sept. 3, I observed a male sockeye salmon in the lower Mad River near the city of Arcata. Adult sockeye were also observed in the Klamath, Smith, and Rogue Rivers by other biologists. As you are aware, these observations were well south of the species' range. I heard that tissue samples were taken from the Rogue River fish for genetic analysis.--Dennis Halligan <dhevonne@humboldt1.com

28 SEPTEMBER. MALDIVES: CORAL

Concerning the elevated sst's and bleaching in Maldives, posted in the last report, I should explain that bleaching although widespread among sensitive species, was not severe and mortality appears to have been low. When the temperature dropped by a degree, from 30 to 29 C, most of the bleaching disappeared, without signs of much mortality. I see the occasional pallid colony with some partial mortality but this could be caused by any number of things. My observations are based on many sorties inspecting corals and are not quantitative. I conclude that mortality was low because I saw few signs of partial mortality in bleaching corals and the same coral types that were bleaching everywhere I looked (i.e. nearly 100% were affected), are alive and apparently well now.--William Allison <maadheli@dhivehinet.net.mv

28 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE: SEABIRDS

Our associate, who works for F&W, called to report 23 Brown Pelicans on Violet Point, the eastern spit of Protection Island, on Sunday (9/28) morning @ 1 pm. He also reported 13 brown pelicans at approx 10:30 am in the Point Wilson vicinity of Fort Worden on the same date. We anticipate further sightings on our Saturday, 10/4 trip to Protection Island.--P. Badame, Port Townsend Marine Science Center, reported by Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

From Diann MacRae at Salt Creek on the N Olympic

Peninsula : After 13:00, found a flock of Brown Pelicans, 29 at first count, ultimately 54, resting on the rocks of Tongue Point. By 1630 the group was moving out.--the Clarks <clark@olympus.net reported by reported by Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

29 SEPTEMBER. KANSAS: CLIMATE

Wichita, Sedgewick County: This past summer here has been a very wet one. I have heard a lot of people around here talk about how they haven't had water there lawns much because of the consistent rainfall. The thunderstorms don't seem quite as severe as past summers. However, temperatures seemed to have been in the 90's with only a few days that seemed to break the century mark.--David Urmnski <davidm1 @feist.com

29 SEPTEMBER. OREGON. FISH

Girabaldi, Tillamook County, Oregon: While fishing Tillamook Bay I observed other fishermen cleaning tuna they had caught only 2 miles offshore. They also reported "Sea Snakes" being caught by the charters.(presumably these are sauries or something eel-like rather than Pelamis sea-snakes.--ed.)--Rick Van Moorleghem <rvm@sebcs.varian.com

29 SEPTEMBER. BRITISH COLUMBIA: SEABIRDS

There have been at least 2 reports of Brown Pelican off the west coast of Vancouver Island in the past two weeks. One adult bird and one young bird were seen close to shore of the small town of Tofino. Unfortunately, I do not have dates available at this time.--Don Cecile <dcecile@cln.etc.bc.ca, reported by Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

30 SEPTEMBER. ALASKA: SEABIRDS

A large and extensive seabird die-off occurred in Alaska in summer 1997.

Short-tailed Shearwaters died from the western Gulf of Alaska to the Chukchi Sea. Other species also died in parts of this area: Black-legged Kittiwakes on the Alaska Peninsula, and murres and some other species in small parts of the west and north. Mortality lasted from mid-May to early September and spanned about a week in each area.

This die-off was very widely reported, considering that the entire area has no roads and few human residents. Calls came from villagers, fishermen, and diverse biologists. Ground surveys were conducted on 21 beaches and aerial surveys on four. (Numbers of birds on beaches suggest relative mortality but are not precise indices.) Cooperators sent specimens from 20 locations.

The first phase of the die-off involved Common Murres in western Alaska in the last week of May. Dead birds were reported in waters between Nunivak Island and the mainland, and 1-2/km were counted on beaches.

The next reported mortality was in waters of northern St. Lawrence Island at the end of July. Several hundred carcasses included murres, Horned Puffins, Black-legged Kittiwakes, Short-tailed Shearwaters, and small numbers of other species.

During the first week of August, Short-tailed Shearwaters and Black-legged Kittiwakes died on both sides of the Alaska Peninsula (the "tail" of Alaska that extends southwest towards the Aleutians). "Thousands" of dead birds were reported in tide rips near shore. The die-off covered the entire lower half of the peninsula, as confirmed by a 2-day aerial survey. Beaches surveyed by foot had 5-50 dead Short-tailed Shearwaters and 1-20 Black-legged Kittiwakes/km. Dead storm-petrels also were reported on one beach.

Short-tailed Shearwaters began dying over a huge area of the Bering Sea at about the same time. Freshly dead birds (as well as flocks of live ones) were seen on both sides of the Aleutian Islands as far west as Adak in the first week of August, on the Pribilofs and near Anadyr (Russia) a week later, and on the north shore of Bristol bay in the third week of August. Densities on beaches ranged from 50/km on Adak to 350/km on Nunivak Island.

Mortality of Thick-billed and Common Murres, Black-legged Kittiwakes, and Short-tailed Shearwaters was reported in the Chukchi Sea between Kotzebue and Point Hope in the last week of August. A few shearwaters were found at Cape Lisburne, on Alaska's northwest corner.

Numerous reports were received of birds behaving unusually. Flocks of shearwaters were seen feeding within 100m of shore. Shearwaters and kittiwakes in the Gulf of Alaska were attempting to grab food out of fishing gear and sometimes perching on vessels. Flocks of shearwaters commonly included moribund birds that did not fly at the approach of a vessel. Several shearwaters were seen up to 30 km inland on rivers and freshwater lakes. Murres had lower than normal breeding success in the Pribilofs (G.V. Byrd and A.L. Sowls, unpubl. data). Dead birds were thin and light in weight.

Most Alaskan seabirds appear not to have been affected. There was no mortality in the northern and eastern Gulf of Alaska. No species died off other than those listed above, although 38 species breed in Alaska and 2 shearwaters visit during the summer. Breeding success of kittiwakes, which is highly sensitive to availability of suitable prey at the surface, was normal in most areas studied, including the Pribilof Islands (G.V. Byrd and A.L. Sowls, unpubl. data). (Data on kittiwake productivity are still being analyzed for some breeding colonies.We have none for 1997 on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula, unfortunately.)

Unusual conditions prevailed at sea in the Gulf of Alaska and southern Bering Sea in summer 1997. Surface waters were very warm, and waters in eastern Bristol Bay were highly stratified (G.L. Hunt, unpubl. data). Several researchers and fishermen reported extensive areas of weirdly beautiful pale-aqua water in the Bering Sea. Hunt has identified this phenomenon as a bloom of Coccolithophorid phytoplankton.

The condition and behavior of the birds, and what is known so far about water conditions, suggest that starvation was an important factor in the 1997. However, necropsy of specimens from various locations will help indicate whether disease or parasites may have contributed significantly. Further information about oceanographic conditions also will help.--Vivian M. Mendenhall, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service <vivian_mendenhall@mail.fws.gov

30 SEPTEMBER: FIJI AND SAMOA: DISEASE

A dengue-like disease has been reported in both Fiji and Samoa "perhaps tied to atmospheric conditions in the region". ProMED <promed@usa.healthnet.org

30 SEPTEMBER. WASHINGTON STATE: CLIMATE

Kirkland, King County: I've noticed an abnormal raise in temperature this past month. A lack of rain has also been noticeable in this region. Rise is has been approximately three to four from normal September expectations. It's actually a pleasurable change from dreary fall/winters from the past.--Kevin Dowdell (no email retained)

1 OCTOBER. NEW MEXICO: CLIMATE, BIRDS

Total rainfall for September 2.43

Departure from normal precipitation for month +1.43 Departure from normal precipitation for year +3.25

It should be remembered that this unusual increase in rainfall is not in itself an ENSO event: the monsoonal airflow from the SW/WSW (SoCal, Gulf of CA, EastPac) is usual for this time of year in NM and AZ, and will continue until cold fronts from the PacNW and central plains displace it.

What *IS* noteworthy is the increase in the amount of water vapor in the flow provided not only by the ENSO-generated hurricanes Linda and Nora, but also generally throughout this past summer. As a result of this water vapor running smack into the central mountain chain, there was a concomitant increase in rain or, at least, in cumulus build-up/verga (and cooling!)

nearly every afternoon during the summer months.

We must await winter storm tracks and jet stream data for actual ENSO effects in the southwest. For more information about ENSO-linked storm tracks, see The North American Climate Patterns at www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/booklet/

Notable Nora-driven birds for Arizona (in greater numbers only except where noted):

Vaux's Swift
Sabine's Gull
California Gull
Franklin's Gull
Common Tern
Least Tern
Caspian Tern
Roseate Spoonbill
Leach's Storm-Petrel
Least Storm-Petrel (second state record)
Black Storm-Petrel (first state record)
Adult Parasitic Jaeger
Black-vented Shearwater (first state record)
Red Phalarope
Red-necked Phalarope

And in New Mexico (4-Corners area):

Wandering Tattler (first state record)

For individual contributors, specific dates and locations, please refer to Chuck Williamson's BirdServ Zingy Weekly AZ/NM Listserv at www.nbhc.com/birdwg05/weeknnw5.htm for the last week of September.--Alice Gomez <myadesta@aol.com

2 OCTOBER. CALIFORNIA: SEABIRDS AND HURRICANES The Los Angeles Audubon Society's weekly report of bird sightings in southern California for Thursday, October 2nd reports a Red-billed Tropicbird was found in northwestern Imperial County on Saturday. The bird was captured and later died. Other effects of the recent storm (Nora) have included Black-vented Shearwaters, Black and Least Storm-petrels and a Parasitic Jaeger at Lake Havasu between the 26th and 29th of September.--Peggi & Ben Rodgers woodduck@cruzio.com

3 OCTOBER 1997. PANAMA: CLIMATE t has been raining heavily in Panama City (Howard Airbase (PACIFIC SIDE) set a new record to maximum rainfall). It has also been raining heavily at Fort Sherman (800 mm)(ATLANTIC SIDE). However, it has not been raining very much in the greater part of the Panama Canal watershed.

The Meteorology and Hydrology branch of the Panama Canal Commission reports a new (by a considerable margin) record for low rainfall and runoff for the month of Sept. This is the second record setting month in a row. Barro Colorado Island received only 162.3 mm of rain (vs an average of 274.1 mm) during Sept. For the year, Barro Colorado Island in the Canal has received 1228.2 mm (vs 1626.9 mm average).

The following are the 5 driest years recorded for Barro Colorado Island:
 
 
 
 
 
 

--Neal Smith SMITHN@tivoli.si.edu

3 OCTOBER 1997. CHILE: HANTA VIRUS

PROMED reports a message from T. Yates that a former student, Eduardo Palma, a mammalogist in Chile, identifies an increase in Oligoryzomys sp. rats has followed flowering and growth of bamboo and perhaps other plants in the area. The ProMed editor suggested this might be ENSO-related.--Terry Yates tyates@sevilleta.unm.edu

3 OCTOBER. WASHINGTON STATE (U.S.): FISH

The Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife has an "El Niño Watch" program that encourages fishers and citizens to report their sighting of unusual fishes. If rare, people can donate their frozen specimen to the University of Washington's Fish Collection. A good photograph along with pertinent collection information would also be of use. Contact Wayne Palsson, WDFW at (425) 379-2313 or e-mail at "palsswap@dfw.wa.gov" Besides of species already reported to this forum, an Ocean Sunfish (Mola mola) has been reported off Vashon Island, south of Seattle on 24 September 1997. This record is as far south as any have been reported in Puget Sound. A likely basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) was reported in Pickering Passage in southern Puget Sound, but several have been reported in this region in previous years. Numerous reports of Brown Pelicans have also been received from many places in Puget Sound, the San Juan Archipelago, and the Strait of Juan de Fuca.--Wayne Palsson PALSSWAP@dfw.wa.gov

3 OCTOBER. EAST COAST (U.S.): HURRICANES

The east coast has not experienced a tropical storm or hurricane this summer, the first I can remember, and I believe hurricane ERIKA, which passed well to the east, far at sea, is the only one. Media coverage of the ENSO reported, citing a NOAA source, that there have only been three years in recorded meteorological history (period of record keeping), without summer hurricanes. William Gray's tropical meteorological page on the Colorado State University Home Page carries a report.--Herb Austin <haustin@vims.edu

5 OCTOBER 1997. MEXICO: SEABIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS, HURRICANES

Just finished a six-week research cruise onboard the NOAA R/V "David Starr Jordan" operating in the very shallow waters (mostly less than 100 meters) of the upper Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez) and Colorado River delta and mouth (mid-Aug to late-Sep). Having never worked in this part of the Gulf before, I have no comparative experience as to how the region may have been influenced by the current ENSO event and analyses of oceanographic data are incomplete. I suspect nothing much really. If anything, it was much more windy than was expected and as suggested by the local fishermen. We were expecting mostly calm Beaufort 0-2 sea states. Up until about mid-September, the almost relentless winds were humid tropical southeasterlies, 15-25knots, with resulting sea states at B-4 to B-6. This hampered study efforts but had a cooling effect on the air temperature keeping it down to a relatively tolerable low-mid 90's F (31 - 33C) while sea surface temperatures hovered around 90 F (31 C). On land (adjacent desert areas, NE Baja & NW Sonora, Mexico) daily daytime temperatures maintained reasonably normal desert levels 105 - 115F (40 - 46C) but with heat "comfort" indices reaching extremes as high as a blood boiling 160 F (71 C) -- this figure via local TV received aboard ship from Yuma, Arizona. Typical overnight low temperatures were often in the humid low to mid-80's (26 - 30C) which were warmer than normal. Our cumulative incidental seabird sightings seemed to indicate nothing really out of the ordinary relative to El Niño. The upper Gulf of California seems like an odd place to find the SOUTH POLAR SKUA (typically 3-8 per day -- possibly same birds I suppose), but this species is apparently a regular part of the summer avifauna here with concentrations as high as 35 birds counted in a single sweep during a 1993 visit to this area, then associated with fishing activity (pers.com. Bob Pitman & Mike Force). [WHY has this species not yet turned up at California's Salton Sea??? ...or has it? "Nora"?? If the South Polar Skua can cross the vast icy desert of Antarctica to reach the South Pole at Admundson-Scott Base (the only species of bird ever recorded there), then a little bit of scalding hot sandy desert shouldn't be such an impossible barrier].

A few to several dozen Sooty and Pink-footed Shearwaters were present daily throughout the period with Sooties all the way up into the delta and along Sonoran desert beaches. The Sooty Shearwaters certainly appeared to be way out of their element in these "hot" waters, appearing severely bedraggled in ragged states of molt, sickly, and oily "slick" as the plumage appeared wet and soaked and not shedding sea water properly. The Pink-footed's appeared to be in much better shape than the Sooties and seemed much more at home in somewhat deeper offshore waters (40 m) as were the majority of Black-vented Shearwaters.

Otherwise, the characteristic residents of the region [Black-vented Shearwater, Black and Least Storm Petrel, Red-billed Tropicbird, Brown and Blue-footed Booby, Brown Pelican, Magnificent Frigatebird, Heermann's and Yellow-footed Gull, and Elegant, and Common Terns] were plentiful, seen daily, and appeared to be doing well. There were no Craveri's Murrelet sightings and none were expected. The only Laughing Gull was an immature on 9/23. A panga trip in the channels around Pelican and Montague Islands inside the mouth of the Rio Colorado on 9/21 noted 200-300 Black Skimmers, a few Gull-billed Terns, American Oystercatcher, Wilson's Plovers, and numerous large waders, especially Long-billed Curlews and Marbled Godwits, et.al., and sneaky "small-sized" Bottle-nosed Dolphins (_Tursiops sp._) that could easily be mistaken for Vaquita (a very rare and endangered porpoise Phocoena sinus) by their slow snap rolling "porpoise-like" behavior in those incredibly turbid waters, but definitely no Vaquita there.

Rarities to the upper Gulf, though probably not to be unexpected included Buller's Shearwater (1), Masked Booby (3) [both yellow and orange-billed forms], Red-footed Booby (1), dark-rumped Leach's (2-3), and Galapagos Storm Petrel (1). A single Wilson's Storm Petrel pattering, planing, and skipping along the surface amongst several thousand Black and Least Storm Petrels in the wake of a fishing boat north of the Midriff Islands, and Audubon's Shearwater off Guaymas were most notable, and both seen during a refueling transit run on 9/01.

Numerous and immense spectacular flocks of migrating Black Terns (tens of thousands!!) and Least Terns (many hundreds to low thousands) were present in waters off Guaymas on 9/01. During the return transit from Guaymas to San Felipe, the "Mother of tern flocks" a massive dense feeding frenzy of 25-50,000 Black Terns were seen off Isla San Sebastian at sunset on 9/04 stretching for more than a mile and looked like a black cloud of insects in the distance!! Sabine's Gull, and all three jaeger species [Parasitic, Pomarine, and Long-tailed (rare)] were regular in small numbers in the upper Gulf through the period. Most of these birds were immature and may have arrived from overland.

There were three Pacific Hurricanes affecting Baja during the study. 40-50 knot pressure gradient SSE winds between "Ignacio" off western Baja and High Pressure over Texas pushed several hundred Sooty Shearwaters and 2-3 dark-rumped Leach's Storm Petrels into Colorado River delta area on 8/16. Superstorm (Category 5) "Linda" turned west off Cabo San Lucas, a relief to everyone and had no effect on the upper Gulf.

"Nora" (Category 1) cut across central Baja from the Pacific side and scored a direct hit on San Felipe and delta area on 9/24-25 (2300 - 0800hrs). At the storms height, driving east winds were sustained at 60-80 knots for about three hours (0500 - 0800hrs) and 13.2 inches (~335 mm) of rain fell. At 0800 hrs, the whole thing abruptly stopped dead, the sun came out and the storm was over. We thought it was the eye, but in fact the storm was indeed over not realizing that this storm had a clockwise rotation. Substantial damage was done to the boat harbor and protective breakwater with about 30 pangas busted up and sunk (including our's), some structural damage and flooding in town, and wide-spread desert flash flooding caused extensive road damage. Mike Force and I had just disembarked in San Felipe as "Nora" approached and we ended up stranded there for four days until rescue arrived to take us and scientific gear to San Diego.None-the-less, it was an "interesting" adventure watching the ongoing fury at beach-side from the Las Misiones Resort Hotel where we had a commanding view of the whole show while hoping that it wouldn't get worse and trying to stay out of the line of fire from flying debris, glass, and breaking windows.

There were no seabirds of note in the immediate wake of the storm at San Felipe other than the offshore regulars having been blown near shore. However, storm fallout reported by birders in desert birding locales of SE California and Arizona included a scattering of many of the characteristic species of the upper Gulf. At least some of these included, Black and Least Storm Petrels, Black-vented Shearwater, Red-billed Tropicbird, Brown and Blue-footed Boobies, and Magnificent Frigatebird.

A sub-adult "yellow-billed" Masked Booby observed on 9/23, just ahead of "Nora" by Mike Force and me in the Upper Gulf east of "Rocas Consag" may be particularly notable and may have either been a belated lost gift of "Linda", or was pushed well ahead of "Nora" which had stalled south of Cabo for a few days, or perhaps was assisted by both.--Richard Rowlett Pagodroma@aol.com

6 OCTOBER. CHILE: SEABIRDS

A brief note from Alejandro Simeone <asimeone@valdivia.uca.uach.cl regarding early breeding attempts at the Humboldt Penguin colony at Algarrobo, Chile. As with last winter, rains have been very intensive, especially during early-mid September and early October. Consequence: the breeding for this season is severely delayed. Last Saturday 27th there were about 10 active nests, what we consider with Mariano to be very poor in relation to same date last year.-- Ed Diebold ediebold@riverbanks.org

6 OCTOBER 1997. WASHINGTON STATE (U.S.): SEABIRDS

Reported by the crustacean unit of Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife: 73 brown pelicans on Protection Island, which is just north of Discovery Bay, and Dungeness spit. ... reported that there have been some pelican sightings from there before, but never of such magnitude.--Hal Beattie BEATTJHB@dfw.wa.gov

6 OCTOBER 1997. TEXAS (U.S.): RED TIDE

I thought you might be interested in the Red tide event at South Padre Island in Texas. I drove 27 miles of beach and in the tidal area the density of dead fish varied from zero/ meter squared to over 200. I'd guess in most places in the intertidal there were about 10 fish/meter. About a 1/3 of the dead things were eels. The most common dead things were fish that fed on plankton. As of Oct. 3 it looked like the event that been going for several days as evidenced by the condition of the fish. Some red drum were dead that were nearly a meter long. I found some needle fish and flounder as well. Apparently Oct 2 was much worse and the toxin was so bad on that day that people had burning eyes as well as a cough. On the 3rd it was still bad and made you cough but it was better than the 2nd. It stayed about the same level through the 5 when I left. I still saw recently dead fish floating in the surface on Oct 3,and 4th suggesting things were still dying. We found one dead coyote that was just above the high tide line that probably died from eating fish. I found one dead grebe but no other seabirds. I did see terns and some gulls scavenging. Apparently there was a red-tide event last year but not as bad as this year. Peter Jenny said that there were no red-tides in the six years or so he has been to South Padre in October until last year.--Dee Boersma boersma@u.washington.edu

 6 OCTOBER 1997. FLORIDA (U.S.): CLIMATE PALM BEACH:

In the news over the weekend: our normal rainy season has ended two weeks early, the earliest ever recorded. El Niño is blamed.--Robert A. Bergen redfishb@flipag.net

6 OCTOBER 1997. PENNSYLVANIA (U.S.): CLIMATE

Lehigh County: I believe the El Niño will have a dramatic effect on the Northeast including PA. In 1982, eastern PA had record snow amounts when the last El Niño occurred. Also, Look at the Southeast for the jet stream to force the moisture into the lower jetstream and force cutoff lows or Noreasters to form along the mid Atlantic region. Mark my word, more snow south of the Mason Dixon line. The El Niño has already raised temps above normal in PA. The 80's in October is rare. If the moisture follows later this fall with a couple of Alberta Clippers we will have a real mess. In other words, the El Niño will feed the moisture starved Alberta clippers, thus more snow along the coasts.-- Michael Siegel msiegel@ot.com

7 OCTOBER 1997. INDONESIA: ENDANGERED WILDLIFE

Associated Press reports that several species of wildlife are being affected by the Indonesian drought. Orangutans in Borneo are being killed when they attempt to raid village gardens; Sumatran elephants are also raiding gardens and tigers, displaced from their jungle habitat, have mauled at least four people.

7 OCTOBER 1997. AUSTRALIA: SEABIRDS, CLIMATE

What is going on with all the Bulwer's Petrel sightings? Why and how could these birds reach the East coast of Australia? (They should be off the west coast). Water temperature off Sydney and Wollongong is exceptionally low at the moment could this be a factor? Is it the weather, lack of observers or just lost birds? I do hope the very serious haze problems in Indonesia is not a factor.--Tony Palliser<TPALLISE@au.oracle.com.

Further on Tony Palliser's remarks on sea conditions.I was down on the south coast at the weekend, watching thousands of Short-tailed Shearwaters moving by. Can anyone tell me if the Eastern Australian current (which is really a series of giant eddies, that move up and down the coast) is related to the El Niño phenomenon and how? The behaviour of the Eastern Australian current seems to be directly connected with the numbers of shearwater mortalities, but I am not aware if those deaths also correlate with El Niño. Does anybody know?

Also, we get the worst droughts in OZ when we get the combination OF an El Niño and also a phenomenon that affects the north-west Indian Ocean. I haven't seen anything about what's happening in the Indian Ocean. Can anyone shed any light on this?--John M. Penhallurick<jmp@comserver.canberra.edu.au --via Bevan Craddock b.craddock@which.net

8 OCTOBER 1997. PAPUA NEW GUINEA: CLIMATE

Associated Press reports famine and disease have killed over 400 people in western New Guinea, following loss of gardens and drinking sources during "the worst drought in half a century".

9 OCTOBER 1997. BRAZIL: CLIMATE

CNN reports that dry season burning in the upper Amazon has been widespread, causing respiratory problems and restricting aviation. Humidity levels "over South America" are at 43%, the lowest since 1939 and the number of fires detected by U.S. satellites in the Amazon is up almost 30% since last year.

9 OCTOBER. GEORGIA (U.S.): CLIMATE

Fulton County, Georgia: This has been the warmest October in Atlanta in ten years! In fact, the beetles are still out and the Bermuda grass isn't even close to being dormant. Although there is some foliage change, it has been far less than expected.--James C. Archer jarcher@bellsouth.netmailto:jarcher@bellsouth.net

14 OCTOBER. CALIFORNIA: KELVIN WAVE:

Bodega Bay: 70 miles north of San Francisco, 38.18' N 123.03' W. We experienced a hard blow on 6 Oct.'97 that we would only associate with a spring or early summer upwelling. Our local upwelling is intense. A drop of 3-4 degrees C is expected after four to six hours when it blows continuously at thirty mph+. During the 6 Oct'97 blow it was gusting to 45mph+ and yet after 24 hours the sea surface temp never dropped more than 1.5 degrees from the steady 13.5 it has been holding at for a week now. I spoke with a biological oceanographer about this observation and he says this is good evidence of the colder water we would normally see coming up and onshore with an upwelling being displaced by a Kelvin wave that shifted the thermocline so that warmer water was feeding the upwelling.-- Paul Siri <pasiri@ucdavis.edu (This appears to be a polar-moving Kelvin wave which would have originated from the original equatorial east-ward moving Kelvin wave that struck Peru. If so, then California can truly say it has ENSO conditions.--Ed.)

10 OCTOBER. WASHINGTON STATE: FISH

A second striped marlin for Washington State was caught by Canadian fisher Gary Sheppard targeting albacore on 10 September. The commercial fisher landed the marlin 25 miles west of Westport near where the first striped marlin was caught on 3 September. The 100 lb 45 (kg) fish was frozen and held on board the F.V. Sea Breeze 2 until delivered to an Astoria, Oregon processor on 5 October. Wayne Palsson, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife <palsswap@dfw.wa.gov

10 OCTOBER: BRAZIL: SEABIRDS & CLIMATE

In the last two weeks heavy rain started to fall all over the state of Santa Catarina causing flooding in some areas such as Rio do Sul area drained by the River Itajai. During these two weeks big waves hit the coast (waves up to 12 ft). Magellan Penguins started to arrive in Santa Catarina shores by late August which is the time when they are leaving the area in normal years. Jorge Albuquerque <albuquer@if.ufrgs.br

10 OCTOBER. OREGON: FISH

40 miles off Florence, Oregon, 44 degrees N 125 degrees W, one mahi-mahi or dolphin fish (Coryphaena hippurus) caught by a commercial albacore jig boat, 63 degrees F water temp. Not unheard of, but certainly related to warm water events.--Neil Richmond<oregon@harborside.com

11 OCTOBER. SPAIN: FISH

Alicante 3840 N 00017 W: Over the last ten months, we have been fishing for shrimp inshore at depths 100 fathoms shallower than their usual 300 fathoms.--Vicente Soriano <canada@ctv.es

14 OCTOBER. CALIFORNIA: GLOBAL WARMING

AP reports that Vice President Gore, speaking at an ENSO summit, suggested that global warming was responsible for increasing the frequency and severity of ENSO events.Ron Fournier, AP, Anchorage Daily News 15 October.

14 OCTOBER. WASHINGTON STATE: SEABIRDS

Between at least 1986 and 1996 thousands of Brown Pelicans could be expected to show up in late summer each year on the Washington coast. The mouth of the Columbia River, Willapa Bay, and Grays Harbor were the main concentration areas though flocks could easily be observed along the coast north of Grays Harbor, in places like Kalaloch Beach and at Willoughby Rock. This pattern of late summer/early fall abundance on Washington's southern coast seemed pretty consistent during this period. This year, a dramatic change is evident. . . I started asking others and heard that anchovies were apparently being found in large numbers further north than usual.--Kelly Mcallister <mcallkrm@dfw.wa.gov, via Peggi Rodgers <woodduck@cruzio.com

14 OCTOBER. NEW HAMPSHIRE: CLIMATE & FISHERY

I am a tuna fisherman in the Gulf of Maine, while the fishing was ok for the season our average water temp was down 10-15 degrees F for the summer, we would normally get 3-4 weeks of 70+ degree water, we were instead lucky to get 2 weeks of 65 degree water. the sea temp would backoff to 55 degrees as soon as a NW wind came into play.--Joshua T Shea <wrench@chi.teds.net

14 OCTOBER. MASSACHUSETTS: MARINE MAMMALS

Within the past two months the New England Aquarium in Boston has responded to stranding events on Cape Cod involving three cetacean species uncommon to Massachusetts inshore waters:

1. August 13 - an adult female false killer whale (Cedric crassidens) at Osterville, Ma

2. September 22 - a sub-adult male beaked whale (Mesoplodon europaeus?) at Barnstable, Ma

3. October 1 - an adult striped dolphin (Stanley coeruleoalba) in Dennis, Ma

Each of these strandings represents an anomalous occurrence of otherwise pelagic cetaceans.--Jim Rice <juice@neat.org

15 OCTOBER. NORTH AMERICA: SOCIETAL IMPACTS

"The past two decades are replete with evidence of the significant economic and social costs associated with unanticipated disruptions in weather and climate patterns. For example, estimates of global losses associated with the 1982-1983 El Nino event exceeded $8 billion. Of that figure, U.S. losses associated with storms in the Mountain and Pacific states, flooding in the Gulf States, and Hurricane Iwa in Hawaii, were estimated to have cost $2.5 billion. The 1988 U.S. drought resulted in an estimated $2-4 billion in direct losses to agricultural producers, with total losses throughout the economy estimated at greater than $22 billion. The 1993 Midwest floods were associated with about $15-20 billion in damages and costs. The 1995 floods in California and the Gulf States resulted in estimated losses of $7 billion. More recently, significant damage and losses have resulted from the heavy rains associated with tropical storms along the west coast, the Gulf of California, and parts of southern Arizona. Yet these figures alone do not adequately capture the real measure of human suffering, direct losses, and missed opportunities.

During the past decade it has become increasingly clear that the coupled ocean-atmosphere weather phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), plays a dominant role in influencing year-to-year changes in climatic conditions around the world. Based upon enhanced understanding of ENSO, scientists have refined their ability to provide useful predictions on a scale that accommodates local and regional planning decisions. The capability to understand and predict El Nino phenomena also presents government officials, industry, and local communities with an array of opportunities, including: reducing vulnerability to climate-related natural disasters such as floods and droughts; enhancing economic competitiveness; supporting public- and private-sector decision-making for climatically-sensitive regions and sectors; providing scientific information to support U.S. international treaty negotiations; and in assessing and maintaining national and international environmental security.

The forecasts are proving to be very useful. For example, the1997-98 El Nino forecast for the United States indicates that Southern California and the Gulf States will experience wetter than normal conditions during the fall and winter of 1997-1998. Federal and local emergency preparedness officials are currently reviewing options available to reduce the human and economic costs associated with potential flooding conditions. In California, scientists, forecasters, and emergency management officials expect the increase in rainfall to be accompanied by an increase in the number and severity of coastal storms, so planners are also developing strategies to deal with threats due to coastal erosion as well as flooding. On the other hand, sports fishing for some deep water species which prefer warm-water conditions (e.g. tuna and marlin) could produce record income for this important California industry. Similarly, a shift in the movement of tuna stocks is expected to produce significant benefits to the tuna cannery industry in American Samoa.

Higher forecasted temperatures for most of the northern and central regions of the U.S. provide natural gas and electric utilities with opportunities to adapt their purchasing, shipment, and storage plans accordingly. Commodities trading in crops such as wheat, coffee, cocoa and sugar is already reflecting the predicted impacts of this year's El Niño. While this year's Atlantic hurricane season witnessed little activity, Hawaii, on the other hand, is anticipating a more active season for tropical storms and hurricanes (Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki both struck during years of warmer than normal ocean temperatures--1982 and 1992, respectively). In addition, many Pacific island countries are preparing for El Nino-related drought conditions".--Tony Socci<tsocci@USGCRP.GOV

2 OCTOBER. BRAZIL: AMAZON FIRES

 "Newspaper reports in recent days show that forest burnings have increased in recent months in Brazil, especially in the Amazonian region. According to the 'Folha de Sao Paulo' of October 01, 38.6 thousand such burnings were registered in all of Brazil during the months of July, August and September of this year. This compares with a total of 32.9 thousand such burnings during the same period last year - an increase of 17%.

In Mato Grosso alone during the month of September, 6 thousand burnings were registered by satellites. In the State of Para, 6600 burnings were registered between July and September of 1996 as compared to 8800 during the same period this year - an increase of 33%.

The burnings have left much smoke in the air in these regions and has been responsible for problems in many of the airports. The airport of Maraba, State of Para, needed to use instruments to help planes land during 120 hours in September - the visibility was seriously impaired. The airport in Imperatriz, State of Maranhao, experienced such difficulties during 32 hours in September while the airport in Carajas, State of Para, was forced to close on two occasions. On September 29 smoke was responsible for a 40% increase in the number of people who sought medical aid in hospitals because of problems with breathing in the city of Manaus, Amazonas. Pilots claim that visibility approaching the city is usually over 5 thousand meters; during recent days at best it has been between 2 thousand and 5 thousand meters.

During the last week we received the following study on this question prepared by the Environmental Defense Fund which we would like to share with you.

-----

Fires in the Amazon - An Analysis of NOAA-12 satellite data 1996 - 1997

Stephan Schwartzman<steves@edf.org

Analysis of NOAA satellite data indicates that burning in the Brazilian Amazon increased 28% between 1996 and 1997. A sample of 41 consecutive days for which data are available starting from 08/01/96 (08/01/96 - 09/16/96) and 41 consecutive days for which data are available starting 08/01/97 (08/01/97 - 09/21/97) shows the increased burning. The sample was selected taking the first 41 days starting August 1st 1997 for which NOAA 12 data could be obtained from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) (http://condor.dsa.inpe.br.mapas_ que) and the first 41 days starting August 1st 1996, in order to create comparable data sets from the burning season in the two years. Occurrence and distribution of fires is observed from thermal anomalies in data from NOAA satellite Advanced Very-High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR). Images are processed and fires counted by INPE from June to November.

A total of 19,115 fires are reported from the NOAA-12 satellite images in the sample in 1996, while 24,549 fires appear in the 1997 data over the period, an increase of 28%. The average number of fires per day increased from 466 to 599. The actual increase for the year may be even greater, since 1997 is drier than 1996 and burning continues. INPE has not yet released analysis of deforestation, based on Landsat Thematic Mapper images, for 1995 or 1996. Increased burning, however, strongly suggests that deforestation rates continue to rise. The most recent deforestation analysis, released last year, showed that forest clearing had risen about 34% between 1991 and 1994, reaching 14,896 square kilometers a year.1/

Burning was concentrated principally in the Amazon states of Mato Grosso, and Para, followed by Tocantins, Rondonia and Maranhao. Half of the fires registered in 1997 were in Mato Grosso alone. The state of Mato Grosso has since 1992 been the beneficiary of a $205 million World Bank loan intended to halt deforestation -- the Mato Grosso Natural Resource Management Program.

These data underestimate the actual number of fires probably by an order of magnitude, since the NOAA-12 satellite passes over the Amazon region at night, recording only the largest and longest- burning conflagrations. Fires to burn cleared forest and pasture are started in the daytime. Previous analyses of burning relied on the NOAA-14 satellite, which orbits the region during the day, and thus records much higher totals.2/ Use of the NOAA-14 satellite data to calculate the number of fires during the burning season was discontinued by the Brazilian government, under the allegation that sun glint, the reflection of the sun from bodies of water or the earth during the Amazon dry season, could erroneously register as burning on the satellite's sensors, inflating the number of fires.

While analysis of the NOAA-12 data under-counts the actual number of fires, comparison of the data from two years does yield a reliable estimate of change in burning activity.

The number of fires is not a direct measure of new deforestation, because old cattle pasture and secondary forest is typically burned every year, in addition to forest newly felled for cattle ranching. Burning in areas not previously cleared is a good indication of new deforestation, and increased burning in past years has in fact presaged increased deforestation.

Of the 12% to 13% of the forested area of the Amazon cleared and burned to date, an area about the size of California, only about 12% is farmed. The rest is cattle pasture, and most new forest clearing is for the creation of cattle pasture. New areas are typically first made accessible to ranching and agriculture by building of logging roads, particularly for mahogany extraction.

Were the 28% increase in burning to represent an equal increase in the annual deforestation rate, and were such an increase to have occurred twice in the three years since 1994, when the last deforestation data were released, the current rate would be higher than 21,130 square kilometers per year recorded by INPE between 1978 - 1988.

The variations in annual deforestation rates since the end of the 1980s are in part explained by economic cycles. As Brazil's economic stabilization plan takes hold and growth picks up, most observers expect increased deforestation.