One way for the population of today and tomorrow to live in harmony in regards to nourishment provided by the environment is to be able to intensify agricultural yields. With a projected population of 10 billion people, an increase of global average grain yields from 2 to 5 tons of grain per hectare would ensure a per capita diet of 6,000 calories and would save a land area twice the size of Alaska (Waggoner, 1994). Most of the world’s increased output is no longer a result of expansion of area used in agriculture, but resulting from the intensification of production on existing agricultural areas.
In the last 50 years, agriculture has intensified and yields per hectare have been rising. Intensification has allowed for a reversal of destruction of land. More land has been spared due to increased intensities. In India, 42 million hectares of land have been spared, approximately the size of California and globally, the world has saved an area the size of the Amazon (Ausubel, 1996). Of all human activities, agriculture transforms the environment most widely (Ausubel, 1996). In an extreme analysis, 10 to 15 percent of Earth’s land surface is occupied by row-crop agriculture, and another 6 to 8 percent has been converted to pasture land (Vitousek, et al., 1997). Minimizing agricultural areas through intensification would seem like a great idea for preserving more land.
Technology has been a viable part of higher productivity in agriculture. Innovations such as tractors, seeds, chemicals, irrigation measures, fertilizers, pesticides, and genetic engineering have played a major part in raising yields without having to clear more fields. But is technology the key to ensuring sustainable agriculture for a growing population.
Many countries have tripled or even quadrupled the amount of grain they produce. Unfortunately, yields have been decreasing while population continues to increase. Grain yields per hectare have been slowing since 1990, rising only 3 percent from 1990-1996 or 0.5 percent per year. This does not keep pace with population growth which is at 1.6 percent per year (Brown, 1997).
Along with population growth, there is a growing demand for a more calorie-filled diet, especially with the unprecedented rise in affluence in Asia. Meat is becoming the food of choice rather than low calorie wheat or vegetables. Since it takes more grain and water to produce animal protein than vegetable protein, added pressure is placed on the environment. From 1990 to 1995, China’s grain consumption increased by 40 million tons; 33 million tons were consumed as animal feeds (Brown, 1997). As economies grow, especially in Southeast Asia, consumption rates of resources are rising exorbitantly. For these countries as well as other developing nations, a choice needs to be made between slowing population growth or sacrificing any hope of dietary improvement in order to lessen the pressure that agriculture creates on environments.
Agricultural intensification is only part of the solution for combating
food scarcity in association with population growth. Ensuring the food
security of the next generation requires fundamental changes in population
policy, energy policy, land use policy, and in water use policy (Brown,
1997). If increases in yields per hectare cannot keep up with the demands
of a growing population, then intensification is not the sole key to solving
the problem of feeding a growing world. More action needs to be taken place
in the form of population control and better resource management in order
to have sustainable agriculture that would produce high enough yields to
coincide with an increasing population. Also, people should begin eating
fewer calories in their diet despite the desire to eat more meat and fewer
vegetables. At the current rate of consumption and population growth, agriculture
will undoubtedly fail to feed all who are hungry. If properly implemented
and supported in a sustainable manner, agricultural intensification might
just be able to keep up with the demand. In the up-coming decades, we will
soon find out.
Brown, Lester R. 1997. Can We Raise Grain Yields Fast Enough? Worldwatch 10(4): Pages 9-17.
Eberstadt, Nicholas. 1995. Population, Food, and Income: Global Trends in the Twentieth Century. The True State of the World. Pages 7-48.
Mitchell, Jennifer D. 1998. Before the Next Doubling. http://www.worldwatch.org/may/1998/98-1.html. March 1, 1998.
Vitousek, Peter M. et al. 1997. Human Domination of Earth’s Ecosystems. Science. Vol. 277. Pages 494-499.
Waggoner, Paul. 1994. How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature? Council for Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.