Chapters 5 "Tracking the Ecology of Climate Change" & 9 "Learning from the Ozone Experience" in State
Vitousek et al.(1997)

Introduction: Human Domination of the Earth’s Ecosystems

    Vitousek et al. (1997) points out that humans are now the most important force in the planet’s biogeochemical cycles, saying that the "momentum of human population growth, together with the imperative for further economic development in most of the world, ensures that our dominance will increase".

    We are changing the Earth faster than we are able to understand it.

    By implication, any scientific study of the Earth’s ecosystems must include human influences, or it will be incomplete.

Land Transformations

    Rapid removal of ecosystems and degradation of ecosystems services are driving an unprecedented rise in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and loss of biodiversity. "Estimates of the fraction of land transformed or degraded by humanity fall in the range from 39 to 50%". Replacement of forests by grasslands and conversion of autotrophic photosynthetic ecosystems to domesticated agricultural and heterotrophic urban ones are major reordering of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles.

    Land transformation contributes about 20% of the anthropogenic inputs of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and more powerful greenhouse gases like methane. The huge forest fires still raging in Indonesia and Brazil elevate carbon monoxide concentrations. These fires have caused photochemical smog and dangerous air pollution over rural areas hundreds of miles distant from urban areas.

    Land transformation is the major force driving the loss of biodiversity of species and populations on the planet. Moreover, it contributes to the "triple whammy" that contributes to an even greater acceleration of biodiversity loss (pollution, habitat modification, and exotic species).

Ocean Transformations

    Most of the Earth's people are located along the coasts - 60% live within 100 km of the coast (Vitousek et al. 1997). Coastal margins and oceans are therefore among the most heavily used and modified areas of the planet, suffering disproportionate amounts of habitat destruction and pollution. About 66% of the world's major fisheries are either fully utilized or overexploited. Upwards of 35% of the primary production of the temperate continental shelves is being harvested in fisheries, or discarded back to the sea as waste ("bycatch"). Humans have transformed about 50% of the world's mangroves. Inputs of nutrients to the coastal zone from development and agriculture have caused an increase in toxic alga blooms, some of which are being blamed for human disease and neurological impairment.

Water

    Humanity is the now one the major driving forces in the Earth's hydrological cycle. Humanity uses "more than half of the freshwater runoff, and, of that, 70% is used in agriculture" (Vitousek et al. 1997). Most of the world's rivers are dammed and the number of dams is increasing (there are 36,000 dams and counting). Only 2% of rivers in the USA run free and many major rivers (Colorado, Nile, and Ganges) are so heavily used that little or no water reaches their deltas and the sea. Major inland water areas (Aral Sea and Lake Chad) have nearly dried up or been greatly reduced to small lakes.

Biotic Changes

     Extinctions and loss of populations is accelerating at an alarming rate. Rates of loss are estimated at 100-1000 times greater than natural rates of extinctions. Extinction rates are even higher on remote islands, such as Hawaii.

    After land transformation, exotic species impacts are the second major cause of species extinctions and population losses. Due to the ease and rapidity of global transportation, the world's ecosystems are becoming "homogenized" due to exotic introductions of plants and animals (and bacteria and pests). Vitousek et al. (1997) call these "biological invasions".

    About 11% of birds, 18% of mammals, 5% of fish and 8% of the Earth's plants are threatened with extinction, and exotic species have a large role to play in their demise.

Vitousek et al. (1997) Recommendations

    "We live on a human-dominated planet- and the momentum of human population growth, together with the imperative for further economic development in most of the world, ensures that our dominance will INCREASE." (Vitousek et al. 1997).

    They recommend that:

• We reduce the rate of impacts since ecosystems can react to stabilize changes at lower rates. This means slowing the rate of population growth since humanity's growth drives all resource use and waste generation that are unsustainable.

• Accelerate ecosystem level research and management understanding. The methods and modes of ecological science must include development of new methodologies to assist humanity in our crisis. This means development of true interdisciplinary environmental scholarship and education of the "informed generalist". Human impacts must be included in all analyses of global and ecosystem change.

• Accelerate our ecosystems management capabilities. "Our activities are causing rapid, novel, and substantial changes to Earth's ecosystems." (Vitousek et al. 1997) They state: "There is no clearer illustration of the extent of human dominance of Earth than the fact that maintaining the diversity of "wild" species and the functioning of "wild" ecosystems will require increasing human involvement".

El Nino and ENSO
The Conveyor
Human Impacts and The Kyoto Climate Change Convention

Carbon Dioxide and Greenhouse Effects

Webliography on Climate Change: General

Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast
Global Warming and Climate Change
The New York Times: Global Warming
Global Warming: The NOAA El Nino Theme Page
Global Climate System
Climate Change

Webliography on the Science of Climate Change

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST, (February 1995)
Institute of Global Environment and Society
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
NOAA Climate Change Site
Science Arguments of Industry: The Global Climate Change Coalition
US Global Change Research Information Office
World Climate Research Programme

Webliography on The Global Climate Flip Flops
 
Calvin, W. 1998. The great climate flip-flop. The Atlantic Monthly. 
Calvin, W. 1997. Climate flips of the past and future
Adams and Foote (1997) Sudden climate change through human history
Holling (1997) Regional responses to global change

Bibliography on Global Climate Flip Flops

Broecker, W.S. 1991. The great ocean conveyor. Oceanography 4(2): 79-89.
Broecker, W.S. 1997. Thermohaline circulation, the Achilles heel of our climate system: Will man-made CO2 upset the current balance? Science 278: 1582-1588.

Webliography on The Kyoto Protocols and Policy Matters

The Kyoto Climate Change Protocols
Senate GOP Declares Kyoto Pact Dead
Summary of Kyoto
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Framework Convention on Climate Change

    Greenhouse warming gases have increased dramatically from anthropogenic sources. Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 ppm in ancient times to 362 ppm now. It is estimated that human activities (fossil fuels, mining, fires, transportation, land transformation, and increased animal agriculture) are adding some 5.5 billion tons per year to the biosphere. Vitousek et al. (1997) believe that land transformations account for 20% of current anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
 
                                Carbon Dioxide Concentrations at the Mauna Loa, Hawaii Station 1960-92

    We know that carbon dioxide has been increasing due to human activities due to core samples of tree rings. Wood samples show that other isotopes of carbon (¹³C and ¹⁴C) have been diluted in relation to stable carbon (¹²C) isotopes coming from anthropogenic sources.

    In the biogeochemical carbon cycle, the major flows are net flux from ocean to atmosphere, net release from natural terrestrial ecosystems, and net storage in biomass and organic matter in soil. All of these natural flows in the carbon biogeochemical cycle are smaller and less certain than current flows of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions and accumulation in the atmosphere (Vitousek et al. 1997).

    The brush fires that burned for four months late in 1997 in Indonesia released as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as is released in all of Europe in a full year from a study conducted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

    Carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere is being blamed for a nearly one degree C rise in the global average temperature since 1866. Bright (1997) says that may not sound like much, in a warmer world where global temperatures were 1-3.5 degrees C higher, hippopotamuses lived in Britain!

    While a warmer world may be cause for some to rejoice and put on their surfing gear, there is major concern that a warmer world will have profound effects on humanity and the crowded biosphere, and that our current ecological crisis will limit our abilities to respond. Some major concerns reviewed by Bright (1997) are:

• Sea Level Rise: During the last 50 years an area of 8000 square kilometers of ice has melted in Antarctica (an area the size of the US state of Delaware). On Sept. 2, 1997 Vice-President Gore went to view the Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana, which has retreated 3,100 feet. Glacier National Park has lost 100 of its 150 glaciers due to warming. Sea levels are rising now at 0.1-0.3 cm per year now. Sea level rise will wipe out nations like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and many other small island states in the Pacific and Caribbean. Climate change will eliminate much of the remaining wetlands (an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] study concluded that 85% of the remaining wetlands of Greece and Spain will be destroyed by sea level rise. Wetlands losses to sea level rises have been recorded in the US Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic seacoasts. And wetlands cannot migrate inland because development has often blocked their path (Bright 1997). Sea level rise will put some of the most valuable property in the world in Asia, Europe and North America in danger, which could precipitate on an insurance crisis. "The $1.5 trillion per year insurance industry…is joining the debate on climate change" (p. 94, Bright 1997).

• Severe Storms: A warmer ocean means a more energetic ocean, and hurricanes and typhoons may become more powerful. A 3-5 degree C rise could produce hurricanes with 50% more power with winds as high as 350 km per hour (Bright 1997).

• Rearranged Climate Patterns: Rain and desert areas would shift, as a consequence the US grain belt would move north to Canada, and the northern boreal forests would march out onto the tundra. Forecasts are the central US would become dry and barren, nearly like Australia's interior. Researchers have noted an extension of northern forests into the Arctic tundra, but the speed of global change is too fast for these ecosystems to adapt. "At the forecast rates of global warming, the entire forest would have to move poleward 1.5-5.5 km per year to maintain its current temperature needs, an ecological impossibility" (Bright 1997). Ocean currents could change and wander. The Gulf Stream that keep northern Europe temperate could move southward, leaving Europe with winters like northern Labrador.

• Increased Severity of Diseases: Increased temperatures would enhance the march of tropical human, domestic animal and plant diseases and pests northward (such as malaria, the European corn borer, etc. etc.). In addition, weakened and rapidly changing ecosystems would be much more susceptible to biological invasions from exotic species.

    Bright (1997) points out that rapid climate change would not only affect the Earth but all of us and even our basic cultural underpinnings. He states, "The struggle to save wild places is thus also an act of economic and cultural self-preservation".

The 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 

FOLLOW THE 1997-98 ENSO WORLDWIDE!!!

El Nino (ENSO)
The 1997 El Nino Southern Oscillation
Click here on ENSO for the El Nino page of the University of Alaska and University of California Irvine
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Home Page 
 
    The Earth's atmosphere and oceans are a tightly coupled system. Normally, strong winds from the eastern Pacific (10 kilometers per second) blow from east to the west carrying warm surface waters with them, and creating a huge upwelling of cold, nutrient rich waters off the coasts of Peru and Chile. These upwellings fuel a short and very productive food web of plankton and grazing anchovies, and support millions of sea birds and marine life that feed on their bounty. Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography say this movement of the lighter warmer waters across the Pacific normally creates a deep thermocline of about 200 m in the Western Pacific and a shallow one at 50 m in the east.

    When these easterly winds stop, or when the wind switches direction and blows from the WEST to the east, an El Nino occurs. A huge amount of water starts its movement from west to east, warming the normally cold ocean from Chile to Alaska (called the "Southern Oscillation"). The thermocline in the Eastern Pacific is pushed down so that its nearly flat (it's now at a depth of about 100 m across the entire Pacific!). Sea levels rise in the Eastern Pacific (and Scripps scientists have said that there is a general 0.6-0.7' sea level rise happening on the West Coast due to global climate change). And the ocean in the Eastern Pacific warms. In the current El Nino, a warming of 4-5 degrees C has been recorded over a huge area of the Eastern Pacific, with 10 degree anomalies recorded in some places.

    The massive warming of the oceans off Peru, Ecuador and Chile (about 20 degrees of latitude by 90 degrees of longitude) causes equally massive changes in ocean ecosystems, with many cold water species migrating elsewhere and other non-migratory species dying due to food shortages.

    This (1997-98) El Nino is the largest one on record to date. It has caused large scale flooding in Chile and Peru, deep snows in the Andes, and been blamed for the drought and damaging forest fires in the Western Pacific (Indonesia). In addition, to direct climate affects, economies of Peru and Chile have been severely affected by the lack of fish. A ban on anchovy fishing due to El Nino conditions in Peru has been in effect since March 1997. Peruvian officials announced the ban would be lifted on 15 October 1997 due to increased anchovy abundance's.

1997 Warmest Year Of Century, NOAA Reports

    1997 was the warmest year of this century, based on land and ocean surface temperature data, reports a team of scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N. C.

    Led by the center's Senior Scientist Tom Karl, the team analyzed temperatures from around the globe during the years 1900 to 1997 and back to 1880 for land areas. For 1997, land and ocean temperatures averaged three-quarters of a degree Fahrenheit above normal. (Normal is defined by the mean temperature, 61.7 degrees F, for the 30-years 1961-90.) The 1997 figure exceeds the previous record warm year, 1990, by 0.15 degrees Fahrenheit.

    The record-breaking warm conditions of 1997 continues the pattern of very warm global temperatures. Nine of the past eleven years have been the warmest on record. "Land temperatures did not break the previous record set in 1990, but 1997 was one of the five warmest years since 1880," said Karl. Including 1997, the top ten warmest years over the land have all occurred since 1981, and the warmest five years all since 1990. Land temperatures for 1997 averaged three-quarters of a degree above normal, falling short of the 1990 record by one-quarter of a degree. Ocean temperatures during 1997 also averaged three-quarters of a degree above normal, which makes it the warmest year on record, exceeding the previous record warm years of 1987 and 1995 by 0.3 of a degree Fahrenheit. With the new data factored in, global temperature warming trends now exceed 1.0 degree Fahrenheit per 100 years, with land temperatures warming at a somewhat faster rate. "It is likely that the sustained trend toward increasingly warmer global temperatures is related to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases," Karl said.

El Nino Impacts Forecast Until May 1998 (Reuters, March 3, 1998)

    The El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to increase storms over the southern and western United States and bring abnormal dryness to Indonesia, northern South America and parts of southern Africa until May, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Tuesday.

    The United Nations agency said above-normal rainfall was expected over much of the eastern part of the Greater Horn of Africa -- strongest over the coastal parts of northern Tanzania, Kenya, coastal southern Somalia and northeast Ethiopia.

    The Geneva-based WMO issued its fourth El Nino Update since October, which summarises data received from the national meteorological and hydrological services of its 185 member states as of February 18. ``El Nino 1997-1998
continues to dominate climatic conditions causing extreme precipitation and severe storms in certain areas, and exceptionally dry conditions in others,'' WMO said. ``The phenomenon has passed its peak in some areas (e.g. Australia), where it is now on the decline, but in other areas (e.g. west coast of North America), its influence will continue well into May,'' it added.

    El Nino, which stems from a warm Pacific current off South America, is the strongest on record, surpassing that of 1982-83. It has brought heavy rains and flooding to some parts of the world and drought to others. ``Warm episode conditions are expected to continue February through April and to weaken during May-July,'' WMO said.

    ``Drier-than-normal conditions are expected over Indonesia, northern South America and parts of southern Africa during the next few months. Wetter-than-normal conditions should continue over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru, and over southeastern South America.''

    Regarding the United States, WMO said, ``Increased storminess and wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to continue over California and the southern third of the United States. ``Warmer-than-normal conditions will persist over much of central North America,'' it added.

    Experts meeting in Singapore last month agreed that for the ASEAN region (Association of South East Asian Nations) that El Nino would gradually weaken, with prevailing below-normal rainfall conditions expected to last until April, WMO said.

    Experts for the ASEAN region foresaw three scenarios afterwards -- ``back-to-neutral,'' ``La Nina (a cold weather event) and a prolonged El Nino, according to the U.N. agency. ``The (ASEAN) experts agreed that the back-to-neutral scenario is the most likely of the three, with a 50 percent probability of occurrence,'' it said. ``This scenario implies that rainfall
conditions will revert back to normal for the region. ``However, as Indonesia experiences its dry season in May to October each year, in addition to the drought conditions experienced in early 1998, hazy conditions and localised forest fires may occur.''

    Experts meeting in Nairobi last month concluded that near- to above-normal rainfall could be expected from March to May over much of the eastern part of the Greater Horn of Africa, according to WMO. ``The indications for above-normal rainfall are strongest over the coastal parts of northern Tanzania, Kenya, coastal southern Somalia and northeastern Ethiopia. Near-
to above- normal rain is expected over the western part of the area.'' The WMO update gave no assessment of the likely impact on crops in the region. Near-to below-normal conditions could be expected further south and in the central inland areas, according to the African experts. ``Risks of widespread dry conditions are low. ``However, the food security situation
remains precarious in the region due in part to poor harvests in early 1997 and excessive rains late in the year,'' WMO said.

    In the coastal regions of Ecuador and northern Peru, El Nino caused tremendous downpours, with Talara, Peru receiving five times its normal annual rainfall -- in a single day.

    Bright (1997) calls for the following actions:

To rediscover the value of material restraint,
To make tax codes that favor renewable energy and natural gas (over oil and coal),
To make tax codes that favor energy efficiency, renewable energy R&D,
Drastic reductions in private car use and increased investments in public transportation,
Removal of systemic biases that promote the use of coal and oil.

    The Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Signatory nations are supposed to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a broad range of more than 5,200 international scientists, economists and policy makers concluded that greenhouse gases are warming the Earth's atmosphere at a rapid rate. In October 1997, the "Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate" met to develop policies on cutting greenhouse gas emissions by the developed nations. In Kyoto Japan in December 1997 nations came up with a plan on how exactly they are to accomplish these reductions.

    The United States position on reduction of greenhouse gases is being formulated at the present time The White House Initiative on Global Climate Change) Challenge of Global Warming . The US produces about 25% of the total amount of greenhouse gases. Rapid economic growth since 1990 in the USA has increased US emission even further. Emissions rose sharply, 3.55% in 1996 alone. The US will be about 13% above target levels by December 1997. Island nations face cuts of 20% reductions below 1990 gas emissions by 2005. Europe faces 15% reductions from 1990 emissions by 2010.

  The main negotiating points are:

• Amount of Reductions: reduction of 5, 15 or 20% reductions in various timelines (2000 and year beyond). canada and the US are asking for "differentiation": each country can have a different target and dates for reduction. Japan is proposing developed countries reduce carbon dioxide, methane  and nitrous oxide emission by 5%, averaged over the period from 20008-2012.

• Net or Total Amounts: calculating gas emissions by total amount or "net" amount, the latter of which would reduce emissions by adding in how much a country's forests could absorb,

• Emissions Trading: countries can buy or sell emissions quotas to each other (the US likes this because emission trading was successful when market incentives were provided under the US Clean Air Acid Rain Program). This method is promising new environmental relationships between developed and developing nations and is called "joint implementation".(also see  JI Online) and (Emissions Trading Primer)

    Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Ca) and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md) are circulating a resolution opposing an backpedaling on the United States commitment to stabilizing emissions at 1990 levels by 2000, as signed in Rio. The resolution is the "Gilchrest-Waxman resolution" on global warming (Congressional Resolution 106, phone 888-723-5246).

 See Romm et al. (1998) A Road Map for US Carbon Reductions

    And, where does our powerful neighbor to the North,  Canada, stand on global warming? (Gary Gallon cibe@web.apc.org. 1997. Key negotiations now underway in Bonn for Kyoto signing: Canada has a position, but we don't know what it is. (Gallon Environment Letter 1 (16): October 28, 1997 Posting)

Carbon dioxide production (tons) per person in various countries in 1992

    Each year the average US household produces about 45,000 pounds of carbon dioxide, an amount enough to fill a balloon 90 feet across.

    Calculate your contributions:
 

GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD FOR YOU: DRIVE BIGGER CARS

    So says the Western Fuels Association, Inc., based in Arlington, Virginia. The Western Fuels Association is a coalition of coal-producing companies and coal-fired utility operators in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountain, and Southwest states, and Louisiana. It reported that global warming is good for the U.S. and North American economies. This coal and oil lobby finds that global warming will reduce cold-related disease and increase crop yields. So, its message is to buy bigger cars and stop this energy efficiency nonsense. It finds that Kyoto is an exercise in self-delusion. What we really should be doing, says Western Fuels, is burn more fossil fuels so we can speed up global warming.

    The Association has put up a web site called World Climate Report, which reported that: "there were about a thousand experiments that demonstrate that carbon dioxide--the major industrial greenhouse emission— makes almost all plants grow better." The Western Fuels Association, Inc., produced a video called "Greening of Planet Earth" for schools and business
associations that reports that: "current CO2 levels — which are 30% higher than in the pre-industrial era — have greatly enhanced the growth of trees and other plants. Results from controlled studies show how a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, which is expected to occur over the next century, will increase crop yields by 30-40%, double the water-use efficiency of most of the earth's vegetation, and possibly triple the productivity of forests.
 

Environmental Organizations    Clinton Receives Briefing on Climate Change by Nobel Laureates	Industry Groups
Environmental Defense Fund	PUCO Global Climate Change Site
World Wildlife Fund Climate Change Campaign	Global Climate Coalition
Global Climate Change Page	Global Climate Coalition (GCC), United States
Greenpeace Report: Global Warming and Climate Change  Greenpeace International (1989)  Greenpeace (1997)	Position Statement of the Global Climate Coalition
Frontiers of Freedom Institute	Canada's Petroleum Industry
Union of Concerned  Scientists	Imperial Oil of Canada's Position
Working Assets provides a free call to the White House to give your views on the USA position on global climate change 1-888-38-STAND-UP.

 

Learning from the Ozone Convention

    Ozone at the earth's surface is a dangerous pollutant, but in the stratosphere 10-50 km above Earth it protects life from dangerous UV radiation. Nobel Prize-winning scientists Mario Molina and Sherwood Rowland (from UCI!) discovered that chlorine-containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in aerosol cans and refrigerants could reach the stratosphere intact. Solar radiation would break them apart and release chlorine, which would destroy ozone quickly (Molina and Rowland 1974).

    In 1988, a big ozone hole was detected over Antarctica, and the CFCs were blamed as the cause. In 1991, NASA forecast an additional 200,000 deaths from skin cancer would result in the next 50 years if nothing was done. In 1992, atmospheric chlorine levels were higher over New England and Canada than were seen previously over Antarctica.

    An international effort of environmental groups, policy-makers, and scientists was organized, which resulted in a successful international convention on ozone (the "Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer") that was signed by 159 nations from developed and developing economies. The treaty mandated restrictions on ozone-depleting substances, especially the chlorine-containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

    The crisis mobilized serious action and created new, unprecedented ways of interacting across the globe. Among these were:

• This treaty put into place for the first time the precautionary principle:

• The experience taught that it was important to formulate internationally competent advisory bodies independent of governments but able to establish the political will to feed into the policymaking process of governments.

• It was the first global environmental accord to successfully address the issue of equity between economically developed and developing nations.

• Parties to the treaty are treated as equals and responses to changes in protocols or inability to meet deadlines are responded to with cooperation rather than sanctions as long as nations are making a good-faith effort to remedy the situation (French 1997).

    Although not perfect, French (1997) makes the argument that we can take many lessons from the successful international convention on ozone (the "Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer"), and apply them to a climate convention treaty. 1997 is the 10^th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, and " a new generation of people faces the task of responding to other daunting environmental challenges that cry out for similar attention-and similar results" (French 1997).

Nitrogen and Atmospheric Pollution

    Most nitrogen air pollution comes from combustion of fuels (electric power plants, space heaters and automobiles). The result is photochemical smog caused by the breakup of nitrogen dioxide by UV radiation.

    In high temperature combustion (cars, trucks, power plants), nitrogen gas (N₂) interacts with oxygen to make nitric oxide (NO), a primary pollutant, and cause of photochemical smog ("Los Angeles air"):

and nitrogen dioxide is decomposed by UV light to make more NO,
 

    The "O" is a very reactive form of oxygen that interacts with normal oxygen to form even more photochemical smog called "ozone",

    The bad news doesn't stop there. The ozone reacts again with nitric oxide (NO) to form more nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) - which goes through the reactions above - and even MORE nitric oxide is produced!

    In addition, fuel is never burned completely to carbon dioxide, so there are also unburned hydrocarbons released into the atmosphere too. These interact with oxygen and make more nitrogen dioxide and ozone. Carbon monoxide (CO) also is released which also accelerates the formation of nitrogen dioxide (and therefore ozone)!

Small Particulates

    Fossil fuels are never burned completely to carbon dioxide, so there are also unburned hydrocarbons released into the atmosphere. The combination between the photochemical smog and atmospheric particulates is a national disaster in some nations. In Taiwan, 12.5% of Taipei's high school students suffer from asthma. Bronchitis, emphysema and asthma are the 10^th leading cause of death in Taiwan.

    There are 90,000 factories, 4.8 million cars and 8.8 million motorcycles in Taiwan (380 vehicles and 2 factories per square kilometer). On more than 6% of days in 1995 Taiwan has "unhealthy" air quality. Small particulate matter measuring less than 10 micrometers in diameter go deep into the lungs, and these have been found to be exceptionally high in some areas of Taiwan. In addition, residents are exposed to "volatile organic" air pollution (benzene a cancer causing substance is one of these), at levels 3-8 times concentrations measured in Los Angeles.

    Volatiles are form incomplete burning of gasoline. There are low numbers of autos with catalytic converters in much of Asia. And there are no international standards available for these dangerous compounds. Taipei commuters are exposed to the highest level of benzene recorded in the world, and the situation can't be any better for many of the Asian megacities.

Smog spreads to remote tropical paradises

   At the March 31, 1998 national meeting of the American Chemical Society, the world's largest scientific society. University of California, Irvine, professor F. Sherwood Rowland said that long-lasting plumes from biomass burnings -- the practice of
burning to clear woodland or brush from the land -- travel across Africa and Australia to bring higher smog levels within range of remote locations in the southern oceans, such as Fiji.

    Tropospheric ozone is a key, harmful part of the photochemical smog found in major cities throughout the world, often as the result of congested vehicular traffic. However, in some cities such as Mexico City and Santiago, Chile, use of liquefied petroleum gas for heating and cooking also can contribute significantly to ozone formation. At elevated levels, it can cause breathing difficulties, increase the risk of asthma attacks, and adversely affect the growth of trees, shrubs, and cash crops ranging from vegetables to orchids.

    Whether you're in a congested city such as Los Angeles or the seemingly pristine environment of the south seas, Rowland said, the chemistry behind tropospheric ozone remains the same: "You need hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and sunlight. In the tropics, burning forests give off hydrocarbons and the high temperatures create nitrogen oxides, and there is plenty of sunlight."

    The data reported today by Rowland and his University of California, Irvine, colleague Donald Blake stem from a variety of studies, many of which have not yet been published. Some surprising findings have originated from comprehensive NASA aircraft experiments involving a dozen different research groups, including the Blake/Rowland team.

    In locations more famous for their isolation than their air pollution --such as Easter Island, the Galapagos Islands, and Ascension Island --the NASA researchers detected significant ozone concentrations that can be traced back to biomass burnings on distant continents, indicating that the smog created by the burning is long-lasting and migrates great
distances.
 
    In 1996, for example, two research planes flying in the South Pacific encountered ozone from biomass burning on 50 percent of their flights, Rowland said. One airplane flew through a plume of smog about 500 miles north of Fiji in which ozone readings reached 131 parts per billion (ppb). The pollution had traveled over Australia, with the major contributors of ozone likely coming from as far away as Africa. Yet, by the time it reached the south seas, Rowland said, "its ozone concentration was high
enough that you would say this is a violation of the EPA regulations," if  it occurred in the continental U.S. He noted that harmful ozone levels remain higher in the northern hemisphere around the world, compared to the southern hemisphere.
 

Bibliography

A whole issue of Environment Volume 39(9), November 1997 is devoted to the issues of global climate change. See especially:

Bongaarts, J. et al. 1997. Global warming policy: population left out in the cold, pages 40-41.
Clark, W. and J. Jager. 1997. The science of climate change, pages 23-28.
Goldemberg, J. 1997. Is joint implementation a realistic option?, pages 44-45.
Kempton, W. 1997. How the public views climate change, pages 12-22.
Lanchberry, J. 1997. What to expect from Kyoto, pages 4-11.

References

Bush, E. and L. Harvey. 1997. Joint implementation and the ultimate objective of the UN Framework on Climate Change. Global Environmental Change, in press.

Galloway, J. et al. 1994. Year 2020: consequences of population growth and development on deposition of oxidized nitrogen. Ambio 23(2): 120-123.

Kjerfve, B. and D. Macintosh. 1997. Mangrove Ecosystem Studies in Latin America and Africa. UNESCO and US Forest Service. USDA Forest Service, Southern Forest Experiment Station, Institute of Tropical Forestry, Call Box 25000, Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico, USA 00928-2500.

Molina, M. and S. Rowland. 1974. Stratospheric sink for chlorofluromethanes: chlorine-atom catalyzed destruction of ozone. Nature 249: 810-814.

Rowland, S. 1989. Chlorofllourocarbons and the depletion of stratospheric ozone. American Scientist 77: 36-45.
 
Underwood, L. 1996. Airborne menace. Free China Review 46(9): 26-36.

Vitousek, P. et al. 1997. Human domination of the Earth’s ecosystems. Science 277: 494-499.

 

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