Course Readings

Duncan (1997). The World Petroleum Life-Cycle: Encircling the Production Peak
Flavin, C. and N. Lenssen. 1994. Powering the future: Blueprint for a sustainable electricity industry. Worldwatch Paper 119. Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC.
Romm, J. and C. Curtis. 1996. Mideast oil forever? Atlantic Monthly April 1996: 57-74.

The Center for Regenerative Studies
UW-Madison Campus Ecology
The Institute of Urban Ecology
Urban Environmental Management
Urban Ecology Australia
UN Centre for Human Settlements
UNEP State of the Environment of Cities
Welcome to Urban Ecology

Webliography: Sustainable Energy

Rocky Mountain Institute
Solstice: Sustainable Energy and Development Online
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN)
Renewable Energy
Sun Utility Network, Inc.

    Cheap available power has changed our lives for the better worldwide but there has been an environmental cost. Large power generating plants produce prodigious amounts of hot water and greenhouse gases that can disturb aquatic ecosystems, and the discharge gases have the potential of changing the Earth's climate.
 

    In 1976, Amory Lovins challenged the world view of energy planners in an article titled, "Energy strategy: the road not taken?" in Foreign Affairs. Amory offered an alternative vision of energy efficiency and investments in renewable energy technologies rather than billions of dollars in new nuclear and fossil fuel plants. Amory described the inefficiencies of one part of our lives when he compared heating water with electricity to "cutting butter with a chain saw". In a recent book called "Factor Four: Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use", Amory and Hunter Lovins state that once companies realize they are selling a process rather than a product, even greater opportunities arise. Utilities are keeping milk cold and houses warm - why must they pollute in order to do that?

    In the mid-1970's energy planners predicted the US would need 135 quadrillion BTUs ("quads") of energy in 1990. Amory Lovins predicted under 100 quads would be needed. In 1990, the US used 83 quads of energy, only 10% higher than 1973. Even Amory underestimated the rate of which many sectors of society would become more efficient in energy use.

    Rapid gains continue to be made in energy conservation and waste treatment technologies continue to be made to the point that the rate of new power plant construction has slowed dramatically; and nuclear power is dead. Energy intensities of the industrial economies has leveled off at around 0.5 kw-hour per dollar of GDP after rising dramatically from less than 0.2 in 1950. Energy efficient designs in new building construction have been shown to not only decrease costs but also to increase worker productivity (Romm and Browning, Rocky Mountain Institute 1994). The US could cut energy consumption in buildings by 33-50% by the year 2015 by investing in simple, cost-effective commercially available technologies.

    "Demand side energy management" has challenged the idea that we need more energy. Rather, conservation of energy costs less than building new power plants, and conservation, or demand side management is the largest "new" source of energy in many of the developed countries. Demand side energy management has a number of attractive features:

1. it lowers energy costs,
2. increases productivity,
3. improves the bottom line,
4. improves a company's competitive position,
5. demonstrates environmental responsibility.

Between 1973 (the first oil embargo) and 1983, the US reduced the growth of energy use by 30% saving some $130 billion a year. Utility investments in energy efficiency tripled from 1989 to 1993 to about $3 trillion per year.

    There are 6 major areas where energy can be saved every day: lighting, in buildings, heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and solar, equipment and machines, motors, and vehicles. The US Dept. of Energy (1996) has put out a document that lists a number of "myths" and "facts" about energy that can help in conservation.
 
 

    However, there are major concerns over the power needs of the rapidly industrializing countries of Asia, the lack of investment in renewable energy technologies, and the slow pace of innovation in transportation sectors worldwide.

Global Energy Futures

    Global economic growth particularly in Asia will lead to increased demands for energy and potentially large increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The US Dept. of Energy projects that global energy consumption will be 24% higher in 2005 and 49% higher in 2015 compared to 1995. A doubling of the urban populations of China and India could increase energy consumption by 45%. If the per capita energy use in China and India rises to that of South Korea these two countries will need 119 million of barrels of oil a day, or about double the world's entire demand in 1996.

    Global oil production is predicted to peak in 2005, then decline by 62% by 2040 (Duncan 1997). In about 2010 world demand will exceed world oil supplies creating a permanent oil shortage, not a "political" oil shortage as the world experienced in 1973 and 1979. Irwin Stelzer of the American Enterprise Institute said, "the next oil shock will make those of the 1970s seem trivial by comparison". The US will be importing 60% of its oil ny 2005, with about a thirds of this from the volatile Persian Gulf region. If current trends hold, our oil trade deficit will double to $100 billion a year, causing a huge geopolitical transfer of net wealth, estimated at $1.5 trillion dollars for Persian Gulf producers (Romm and Curtis 1996).

Forecast Demand for Electricity in Selected Asian Nations (gigawatt-hours)

Asian Nation	1996	2000
Bangladesh	7,425	10,431
Pakistan	54,927	89,036
China	1,144,154	1,954,780
India	328,613	513,428
Indonesia	47,509	72,566
Thailand	83,097	152,986
South Korea	202,159	368,408
Taiwan	163,308	279,414

Source: Asian Development Bank (1996)

A Sustainable Energy Future: Renewables

    The US uses 17.7 million barrels of oil each day. We now import over 44% of our oil as domestic oil production has fallen since a peak in 1970. Oil imports increased our trade deficit by $47 billion in 1994.

      The US energy supply from renewable sources is not increasing rapidly. Only 7.6% of the US energy supply comes from renewables. The current federal budget cuts research into energy efficiency by 25%. But recent analyses have shown that renewables could provide as much as a third of new electricity worldwide in 30 years.

    The Worldwatch Institute reports that shifting to a low pollution econom will open up billions of dollars of new economic opportunities in solar energy, micro-power, and low-emissions vehicles, which would lower energy bills and create new jobs (Flavin and Dunn 1998). New energy technologies have moved from experimental curiosity to commercial reality, economically turning sunlight, wind, and natural gas into heat and electricity. They report that experience in countries such as Denmark, Germany, and Japan shows that relatively modest policy shifts-allowing new energy technologies access to the market, and leveling the playing field-are all it takes to spur an energy revolution." The Worldwatch researchers cite some early signs of
change:

* the world market for solar cells has gone from $340 million in 1988 to $900 million in 1996.  In Japan, housing companies have introduced homes with silicon roof tiles that generate enough electricity to meet most of a family's annual needs and have already installed 10,000.

* the global wind power industry, already a $2 billion a year business, is growing by 25 percent annually.  Its tough fiberglass blades and electronic controls pump out electricity at a cost that is often lower than that of coal-fueled power plants, and still plunging.

* a new generation of micro-power plants is being located inside office and residential buildings, allowing for the efficient production of electricity and heat. These are based on devices such as small gas turbines and fuel cells, and could make the coal-fired power plants that generate nearly one-third of today's carbon emissions obsolete.

* a new kind of hybrid electric car that is twice as efficient-and produces half the carbon emissions-of today's cars is on the way. Toyota has already begun selling one such model, and several others are under development.

    Worldwatch reports that the pace of adoption of these and other new energy technologies will depend on whether government policies-many of which shore up the status quo and retard the development of alternatives-are transformed. Efforts to cut fossil fuel subsidies, improve energy efficiency standards, and provide incentives for renewable energy and reforestation are among the modest initiatives that have begun to alter emissions trends. If any one country were to adopt a 'Dream Team' of best energy practices-Danish tax policy, U.S. appliance standards, German renewable energy incentives, and Dutch industry covenants-it would be able to surpass even the toughest goals being considered for the Kyoto protocol.

Solar

    1996 was the largest growth year ever for solar energy with the opening of 4 new manufacturing facilities (see Gore flips California solar facility switch). The cost of a kw of solar energy from from $60 in 1970 to 0.25 in the early 1990's. A Japanese manufacturer has developed experimental "solar roofing tiles" that are expected to be cost-effective shortly after 2000. Enron Corp. is building a 100 megawatt solar power plant in Nevada that will sell electricity for 5.5 cents per kW-hr. In countries where there is no power grid or where it is undeveloped, solar energy is more cost effective than conventional sources.

UNEP: Passive Uses of the Sun
President Clinton's Million Solar Roofs Initiative

Wind

    There are 17,000 wind turbines  installed producing power for 1.4 million persons. Wind power is competitive with natural gas in some countries. US wind resources are 4.4 billion megawatt-hrs. more than 1.5 times the total electricity used in the USA. Kenetech Inc. generated more than 659,000 megawatt-hrs. in 1993 in California alone. In Wyoming, USA, a hectare of rangeland that sells for $100 could yield more than $25,000 worth of wind power electricity (Flavin and Lenssen 1994).

Biomass

    Use of agricultural wastes, wood and paper by-products provides some 11 gigawatts annually for the US. Ethanol-blended gasoline is 11% of the USA's transportation fuels. It has been estimated that 435 million people in India lack electricity, and that 80% of rural India faces problems getting daily cooking fuel. A 2 cubic meter biogas digester meets the cooking needs of a family of five and costs $350 (Sampat 1995). India has huge cattle herds producing enough dung to fuel 52% of the energy needs of India's population, conserving 130 million tons of wood. China has 5 million  biogas digesters in place.

Geothermal

    There are 70 geothermal energy plants in the Western USA producing 3.1 gigawatts of power. More than 250,000 geothermal heat pumps have been installed in homes, schools, and other buildings. Worldwide, geothermal provides 9% of the power in Kenya, 26% in the Philippines, and 28% in Nicaragua (Flavin and Lenssen 1994). Japan has 270 megawatts of installed geothermal capacity and has a potential of 69,000 megawatts, about double the nations' current nuclear capacity.

Hydropower

    Hydropower contributes 243,000 gigawatts of power (1994) at $0.25 per kw-hour. Environmental and social constraints will deter large expansion of hydropower potentials in the next century. Small scale projects will be chosen over massive investments like the Three Gorges Project in China which will displace an estimated 1 million people.

                      Costs of Power Generation in the US 1985-2000 ( 1993 cents per kW-hour)

Getting a Grip on the Gas Guzzlers

    Increased energy efficiency at the industrial level is reducing energy production's negative impacts on society, nature and people. But Americans are still then largest users of energy and gasoline worldwide because we are wedded to the automobile. Transportation takes up 2/3 of America's oil consumption. Transportation accounts for half of all US air pollution and 80% in cities.  

  Fuel efficiency standards in the US have lowered fuel use per mile, increasing average mileage from 14 to 27 miles per gallon from 1975 to 1985 (called Federal Corporate Automotive Fuel Efficiency [CAFE] standards). But efficiency is not everything. Americans have driven more miles per person in the period from 1973-present. And fuel efficiency is dropping as over 25% of the fleet of America's cars have changed to fuel guzzling sport utility and small trucks for routine use. An article in the Wall Street Journal (December 19, 1997) titled, "LARGE LIGHT TRUCKS IN U.S. ALLOWED TO EMIT 5.5 TIMES MORE POLLUTION THAN CARS" stated that "New air pollution regulations proposed by the U.S. EPA would cover cars, mini-vans, small sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and small pickup trucks, but would exempt larger SUVs and pickups. The new regulations would allow vehicles like the Chevy Suburban, the GMC Yukon, and the Lincoln Navigator to emit 5.5 times more nitrogen oxides than smaller cars. Under current rules, larger vehicles are allowed to emit only 3 times more pollution than smaller cars. These changes are part of the deal the EPA is trying to broker with 12 northeastern states and U.S. automakers. A provision in the new regulations prevents states from setting standards that are tighter than federal regulations.

    Meanwhile the total US fleet of cars grew to 157 million cars, and burned 91 billion gallons of gasoline in 1994.

    The future will see the advent of hybrid fuel cars with large increases in mileage rates, but we need to decrease the numbers of travel miles because our population is still growing if we ever want to clean up our air and meet global emission targets set out by the Kyoto Convention on Climate Change.

What Needs to be Done? (Consumer Reports 1996)

1. Get Out of Our Cars.
2. Drive Efficiently. Buy a high mileage car, not a sporty utility or small truck. Keep your tires inflated and your engine tuned. Open your vents instead of the air conditioning.
3. Close Up Your Home. Plug leaks with weather-stripping; caulk windows and doors. Insulate your attic. Install low-e windows.
4. Lighten Your Roof. Using light colored roof can cut air conditioning bills by 20%. Reflective roof materials and shade trees could cool Los Angeles by 5 degrees F, reducing air conditioning bills by more than $150 million; reduce smog by 10%: and be worth $300 million a year in health-related benefits.
5. Ditch the Fridge. Modern reefers are 60% more efficient than old ones.
7. Change Light Bulbs. Use compact fluorescent bulbs.
8. Buy Less.
9. Speak UP! Let everyone who represents you know energy efficiency is important to you.

    Consumer Reports (1996) also has some comments on what needs to be done at the government level:

1. boost efficiency: using industrial ecology concepts, 25-30% of industrial energy could be saved,
2. use taxes to change behavior: levy a carbon tax based upon how much carbon dioxide fuels produce,

                                   Gas Prices and Taxes in Selected Countries 1990

3. revive research & development: support more program like the "e-window". A $3 million investment in these windows have already cut an estimated $76 million from consumers' electric bills,
4. switch energy sources: move away from fossil fuels and nuclear to renewables in a directed way. In 1989, $833 million was spent on research on nuclear fusion. The nations of the International Energy Association spent only $856 million in 1989, down from $931 million in 1988 (Flavin and Lenssen 1990),
5. seek global solutions: work with China and India's 2 billion people to implement state-of-the-art technology not old fossil fuel dinosaurs. Rich countries could use money from a carbon tax to help rapidly industrializing countries to implement better energy policies than we've had. The World Bank spends less than 5% of its energy and industry loans on energy efficiency; renewable energy sources other than hydropower comprise an even smaller percent.

Contrasts: Sweden, Sacramento, and China

    Sweden intends to build the world's first science park aimed at stimulating environmentally sustainable research. The park when done will employ 7,000 people and occupy a unique "environmental suburb" of Stockholm. Initially the park will focus on research into sustainable power, waste management, and water treatment. Leading Swedish industrial powers, like Electrolux, are joining in.

    In Sacramento, California, USA, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District closed its 900 megawatt nuclear plant Rancho Seco in 1989; and has initiated programs to replace 42,000 refrigerators; plant 500,000 trees; purchase power from 4 industrial co-generation plants; invest in a 50 megawatt wind farm; install solar electric systems on customers roofs; and will invest in electric car development.

    China's economy loses $54 billion a year due to pollution. A World Bank study shows that air and water pollution cost China 8% of its GDP, about $54 billion a year, mainly in damage to human health and lost agriculture production. About 80% of China's water is polluted. Over the next 15-20 years the scale of environmental problems will be so huge that China's economy will not be able to cope with them. China requires some $34.5 billion worth of investments in the environmental sector.

ACEEE (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy). 1996. Boosting prosperity: reducing the threat of global climate change through sustainable energy investments. ACEEE Pubs., 2140 Shattuck Ave, Berkeley, CA 94704.

Asian Development Bank. 1996. Financing environmentally sound development. ADB, Manila, Philippines.

Consumer Reports. 1996. Turning up the heat. September 1996 Issue.

DPE (Department of Energy). 1996. Hands-on solutions to improve your profits and productivity.

Flavin, C. and N. Lenssen. 1990. Beyond the petroleum age: designing a solar economy. Worldwatch Paper 100.

Flavin, C. and N. Lenssen. 1994. Powering the future: blueprint for a sustainable electricity industry. Worldwatch Paper 119.

Heede, R. and H. Lovins. 1994. Renew America's teleconferences: environmentally sustainable energy choices. Rocky Mountain Institute, Snowmass, CO.

Lovins, A. 1976. Energy strategy: the road not taken. Foreign Affairs, October 1976.

Romm, J. and C. Curtis. 1996. Mideast oil forever? Atlantic Monthly April 1996: 57-74.

Sampat, P. 1995. India's low-tech energy success. Worldwatch November/December 1995: 21-23.

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