China’s growing demand for energy to fuel its rapidly growing economy has called for the development of the Three Gorges Project. Construction of the "megadam" will provide the country with electric power and flood control. However the project will also displace over 1.2 million people, cause irreversible environmental degradation, violate human rights, and change the economy of the areas affected. This paper will discuss the benefits, costs, and necessity of the TGP as well as alternative choices and recommendations.

    For many generations Chinese officials have dreamed of constructing a dam to tame the Yangtze River. The first to suggest such an idea was Dr. Sun Yat Sen, forerunner of the democratic revolution in China. Planning, designing, and consulting for the project began as long ago as 1954. However, it wasn’t until April of 1992 that a proposal to build a dam at the Three Gorges site was approved by China’s National People’s Congress. Currently full-scale construction of the dam is underway, with a completion date of 2010.

    The target of the Three Gorges Dam, the Yangtze River, is the third largest river in the world. It stretches 3,900 miles long and has more than 700 tributaries. The Yangtze also has a watershed of about 700,000 square miles, which is equal to 20% of China’s total land mass and represents 25% of its entire cropland. About 33% of China’s total population, 350 million people, live within the watershed area. This area also accounts for roughly 40% of the nation’s total agricultural and industrial output(Slyke, 1988).

    The Three Gorges, composed of the Chu-tang Gorge, Wu Gorge, and Hsiling Gorge, lie adjacent to each other in a east to west direction. The entire passage of the Three Gorges is about 150 miles(Slyke, 1988). The actual site of the dam is set forty kilometers upstream of another dam, the Gezhouba Dam, near the city of Sandouping(Figure 1).

    The dam will be the biggest project of its kind as well as the biggest project ever in history. It will create a reservoir 375 miles long, 575 feet deep, 185 meters high, and contain approximately 39.3 billion cubic meters of water. According to the Trade and Environment Database Case Studies(1996), the cost of this megadam project is currently estimated at $10.57 billion. Other sources estimate the final cost of the project to be much higher, at $30 billion. Eighty percent of the project will be funded domestically, thus giving about $5 billion worth of investment opportunities to potential foreign investors and NGOs. "Construction of the hydroelectric dam requires numerous international inputs, such as machinery and hydraulic equipment"(TED case studies, 1996). The $3 billion in machinery needed would allow foreign companies to benefit from the construction of the dam.

    Although the goals of the project are to generate enough power to keep up with China’s growing economy, prevent major economic and social losses from floods, and ease navigation along the Yangtze River, there are many drawbacks. It is highly doubtful that the planners began with harmful intent in constructing the dam. However, the negative impacts that the project will have on the environment as well the people are all too real and very predictable. Figure 2 lists some of the environmental issues that have developed as a direct result of the Three Gorges Project. There are other environmental concerns not listed or not foreseen in the many studies conducted on the project.

· Change in river dynamics to slow flowing or still moving.
· Inundation of usable land
· Replacement of organisms to ones more adapted to reservoir habitats
· Changes in water temperature above and below dam and water loss to evaporation
· Sediment deposition in reservoir
· Disruption of Yangtze’s nutrient dynamics.
· Disruption of migrating fish.
· Erosion of reservoir shoreline and landslides.

Benefits of the Project

Energy

    China, which gets three-fourths of its energy from coal, uses between 1.1 and 1.2 billion tons of coal annually. It is also the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels(Flavin, 1997). With its current rate of industrial growth, the numbers will surely increase drastically in the future to keep up with the growing energy demands. Once completed, the Three Gorges Dam will generate 16,750 megawatts of hydroelectric power, which is 50% more than the Itaipu Dam, the world’s current leading power-producing structure(Fillon, 1996). The power produced will be equivalent to the burning of 40 to 50 million tons of coal yearly. This would decrease substantially the amount of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emitted, and thus benefit the atmospheric environment.

Flood Control

    The problem of seasonal flooding along the Yangtze River is very common, occurring approximately every five years. Once completed the dam will prevent flooding by stopping floodwaters from reaching the lower areas of the Yangtze. As China’s history has shown, flooding is a very serious problem along the lower areas of the river. For instance, the flood of 1870, considered the largest in the area in 4,000 years, drowned 240,000 people and 1 million hectares of land(Drei et al, n.d.). In 1954, a flood killed 30,000 people and left one million homeless. The completion of the project would not only spare China of economic costs but also protect millions of people who live in the flood-prone areas of the river.

Economic Growth and Development

    Economically the Three Gorges Dam would help China tremendously by providing power for it’s industrial growth. It would supply Eastern China, Central China, and Eastern Sichuan with 16,750 megawatts of hydroelectric power to help boost industrial outputs. With China’s fast growing economy at hand, the Three Gorges Dam becomes a much needed supplier of power. Furthermore, the reservoir created by the dam would improve navigation capacities in the stretch of river between Yichang and Chonging by allowing 10,000 ton boats to make direct trips between the two areas. According to Wei Tingcheng, the vice-minister of the project, construction of the dam will also provide jobs for many, as well as provide several business opportunities such as the construction of new cities in order to accommodate people who have been relocated from their original homes.

Problems: Effects of the Project

    Construction of the Three Gorges Dam will bring about many benefits to China’s economy. However it will also bring about many problems associated with the dam’s erection. "Once these projects are built, their benefits often prove illusory or short-lived, and their ‘unanticipated’ long-term social and environmental costs overwhelming"(Williams, 1991). Many of the problems associated with huge dam projects are environmental problems. The Three Gorges Project is no exception in this area. In addition to negative environmental impacts the dam will also create social and economic problems as well.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    Studies show that the Three Gorges Dam will bring about numerous environmental problems. These problems range throughout the entire water basin from above the site of the dam to the river mouth of the Yangtze. This section will cover some of the problems in detail followed by a list of other possible environmental impacts.

Sedimentation

    The project will bring about a significant change in the dynamics of the river as well as the surrounding habitats. According to the Trade and Environment Database (TED) Case Studies(1996), "the project will have a devastating ecological impact." The Three Gorges Dam will drastically reduce the speed of the river’s flow and induce siltation in the reservoir. The change in the river’s flow speed and increased siltation will eventually lead to a change in the area’s natural habitat.

    Many opponents of the Three Gorges Project question the actual economic worth of the dam. Although supporters believe that the dam will function smoothly as expected, many studies have shown otherwise. According to Leopold(1996), of the 330 major reservoirs built in China, 230 have significant problems with sediment deposition. Some of the reservoirs have lost 14% of their total storage capacity while others have lost more than 50% of their total storage capacity.

    To counter the problem of sediment deposition, special operating procedures have been developed. During the flood season, the water in the reservoir would be kept at a lower than usual level called the Flood Control Level which allows water to flow through the dam. After the flood season the water would be impounded and the reservoir level allowed to rise to the Normal Pool Level(Figure 3).

    Although reservoirs that follow this procedure have had some success, they differ significantly in size(Leopold, 1996) They are at least 82% smaller when compared to the Three Gorges Dam. Since the inflow of sediments does not always dictate the rate of sedimentation, it is difficult to determine the rate of sedimentation from 50 to 100 years from now, as was done for the project. A delegation of U.S. engineers visited the project site in October of 1997 at the request of Lu Yumei, the president of the Three Gorges Development Corporation to assess technical flaws of the project. It was concluded that sedimentation played the major role in dictating the performance of the dam. It was also concluded that sedimentation would compromise the dam’s operation sooner than expected(Topping, n.d.).

    At the mouth of the river in the estuary, further problems resulting from the dam will become apparent. The Yangtze transfers more than a half billion tons of silt to the estuary yearly. Of this amount roughly 50% is deposited near the estuary, extending the coastline about fifty meters each year. Approximately 70% of the sediments is expected to be trapped behind the dam, thus drastically decreasing the estuary’s ability to function in land formation. According to Drei et al.(n.d.), without the flow of sediments the "current equilibrium of the land formation" will be reversed. Clean water below the dam will erode the coasts in the lower reaches of the river as will as contribute to the retreating coastline during the dry season.

Impacts on Aquatic Systems

    The dam will reduce downstream water temperature as well as increase downstream water levels during flood seasons. At least four native fish species are sensitive to water temperature and level during their breeding season. Species not able to cope with such changes may suffer substantial reductions in numbers or even face extinction.

    The Chinese Sturgeon, which lives in the middle reaches of the river, will be greatly affected by the change in river flow and natural habitat. Further downstream, in a 1,600 kilometer stretch of the river between the middle reaches and the estuary of the river, the dam will take its toll on the Chinese paddlefish. The dam will reduce the habitat of the paddlefish by 200 kilometers and push their dwindling number of only 300 closer to extinction(Drei et al., n.d.).

Impacts on Terrestrial Systems

    The dam affects terrestrial organisms as well. The creation of the dam’s 375 mile long reservoir will inundate many habitats and affect countless numbers of terrestrial species. One study shows that terrestrial animal populations may even increase(Mclure, 1996). The new habitat will be dominated by water fowls and amphibian populations while rodents and other terrestrial animals seek higher ground. The result will be an increase in pest populations in towns and cities around the reservoir(McClure, 1996).

    Endangered species affected by the project include the Chinese Tiger, Chinese Alligator, Giant Panda, Siberian Crane, Chinese Sturgeon, the Chinese Paddlefish, and the Yangtze Dolphin.

Influence on Salinity Factors

    During the dry season, an influx of salty sea water up the river is very common. The sea water may reach the suburb county of Wusong in the northern part of the estuary where it contaminates the area’s water supply. During the months between January and April, the Three Gorges Dam will increase the flow of water downstream, thus, reduce the infiltration of salty sea water. However, during the dry season around October when saltwater intrusion is most severe water will be stored in the reservoir. Since the downstream flow of the river is minimal during this time, the salinization process is exacerbated.

Water Pollution

    Another major concern is water pollution. The river, no longer free flowing, will become very polluted once the toxins and pollutants are slowly released from the cities and land where they are submerged. Also, as cities near the Yangtze discharge more wastes into the slow moving river, the level of pollution will rise substantially. Underground water pollution is also predicted. The inundation of many acres of farm land as well as the loss of land replenishment by silt in yearly flood cycles will require farmers of the region to use more chemical fertilizers to achieve the same level of production on the exhausted land. Increased fertilization use may increase the amount of agricultural runoff such as nitrates into surface as well as ground water supplies.

Disease

    With dramatic changes in habitat, diseases could become more widespread. Since the reservoir will be located in a subtropical climate, the possibility of an outbreak of water-borne diseases are very likely. Cases of water-borne illnesses, such as malaria and schistosomiasis, are expected to increase(Drei et al., n.d.).

SOCIAL IMPACTS

    Socially the Three Gorges Project will also have negative effects. The little time and effort China spent in dealing with the social effects of the Three Gorges Project have caused problems ranging from loss of culture to violations of human rights

Resettlement

    The major social impact that the Three Gorges Project will have on the people in the area is forced population resettlement. The homes, land, and livelihoods of over one million people will be destroyed, submerged under water. Their relocation will require numerous resources, a lot of funding, as well as countless hours of work. According to Fillon(1996) the Yangtze River Water Resources Commission will relocate 1.2 million people and provide new farm land for some 300,000 farmers.

    Relocation of over a million people from their homeland would also bring about the loss of culture when resettling to different areas. The traditions, lifestyles, and cultures of the people affected by the resettlement can never be replaced and will surely depreciate as time passes.

    According to Goodland and Daly(1996) social sustainability, the maintenance of social and human capital, is just as valuable as other resources, such as natural resources. Once culture, a form of social capital, is depreciated it is gone for good. Construction of the dam will definitely have negative impacts on Chinese culture as well as China’s social capital.

Human Rights

    The relocation process has also brought about unrest with the targeted people as well as claims of human rights violations. According to the Human Rights Watch(1995), any opposition to the project, whether it be literary works or protest actions, have been dealt with almost immediately via position dismissal for government officials to arrests for political activists. China’s use of penal labor camps have also brought about concerns from many human rights groups.

    According to the TED Case Studies relocation of over a million people will be far more challenging than the Chinese government anticipated. It is believed that the failure rate for this massive resettlement project will be very high due to the enormous amount of people involved as well as China’s poor record of success in many of their previous resettlement attempts.

    In many of China’s previous relocation projects, the "relocatees" have been given little or no compensation. According to the Human Rights Watch(1995) and Drei et al.(n.d.), Chinese government has failed to provide any useful information regarding the resettlement plan to the public. This confidentiality has led many to believe that relocatees will receive minimal compensation and will be resettled in refugee-like camps(Drei et al., n.d.).

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Agriculture

    The creation of the reservoir will also have some negative effects on the economy. For instance some 14,500 hectares of fine agricultural land will be inundated(Drei et al., n.d.). To compensate this loss, farmers in other areas must increase their outputs from the much exhausted lands. The population will very likely face a food shortage. The drowning of 140 towns, 326 townships, 1351 villages, three urban centers, 11 counties, and thousands of acres of forests(Drei et al., n.d.). Towns in other areas must accept the "dam refugees" despite overcrowded conditions already present in the towns.

    Farmlands near the estuary will also be destroyed as lower than usual river flow during dry seasons allow for the intrusion of salty sea water into valuable farmlands.

Fisheries

    Just as sedimentation will affect fisheries downstream, the reservoir will affect fisheries in the middle reaches of the river by transforming it from rapid flowing to slow flowing or still moving waters. This would change the habitats of the fish which would eventually lead to a drop in the productivity of the fisheries. It is estimated that the dam will trap over 75% of the sediments. These sediments are nutrient rich and in the past have been used as fertilizer for fisheries and agriculture downstream from the dam. With the dam acting as a barrier to the much needed flow of sediments, downstream fisheries and agriculture will be deprived of much need nutrients.

    The TGP will also seriously affect the fisheries downstream by preventing the fry bred in the upper reaches of the river from reaching fisheries downstream in the Hubei and Hunan provinces. The fry catch is estimated to decrease by 3.5 billion in these areas(Drei et al., n.d.).

Tourism

    The area that will be submerged is extremely rich in scenery and contains many archaeological sites as well. Contained in these sites are numerous temples, historical sites, and even evidence of human habitation of the area that dates to the Palaeolithic(Johnson, 1996). It is calculated that the project, once completed, will destroy about 800 sites of cultural relics(TED, 1996).

Industries

    The reservoir would also submerge numerous factories that would otherwise continue to take part in China’s economic growth. Relocation of the many submerged factories would be very costly as well. In addition, all of the coal and metal mines that are worth millions of dollars will be submerged along with the numerous highways and roadways.

ENGINEERING ASPECT

Dam Safety

    The underlying bedrock of the TGP site is characterized by frequent weak earthquakes. It is believed that the increased weight of the reservoir and the dam will cause increased tectonic activity. Increased tectonic activity may weaken the dam causing damages ranging from minor to disastrous(McClure, 1996).

RESOLUTION

    In weighing the costs and benefits of the project, is the final product really worth the troubles that follow? Figure 4 is a summary of the costs, benefits, and risks of the TGP discussed previously.
 

COSTS	BENEFITS	RISKS
Change river dynamics	Shift from coal to hydroelectric power thus decreasing carbon dioxide outputs and particulates	Increased seismic activity from stress of reservoir/dam
Change surrounding habitats	Help prevent flooding-saves lives	Increased poverty from resettlement
Deplete nutrient deposition at river mouth	Provide power for increased industrial growth and stabilize the national grid	Decreased agricultural output
Change in aquatic and terrestrial species composition	Increase navigation capabilities of river	Decreased aquacultural output
Reduction in silt-formed coastline	Provide opportunities for new investors	Failure of TGP to function as expected
and downstream inputs to marine ecosystems
Salinization of water supply
Pollution of river and reservoir
Inundation of agricultural lands
Increased rate of water-born diseases
Resettlement of 1.3 million people
Cultures of areas affected
Destruction of cities and factories

Figure 4. Costs Benefits and Risks of TGP

METHODS TO PREVENT ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

    Whenever a project requires the construction of a dam, more often than not there is a direct negative impact on the habitats involved. The Three Gorges Project is no exception. Many experts believe that it is not possible to build a dam with minimal environmental impact. Although dams are capable of providing short term power for economic growth, they are detrimental to the parties affected in the long run(Williams, 1991). Is it possible to create a dam the size of the Three Gorges with minimal environmental impact? Many experts as well as opponents of the TGP believe that there is no compromise between constructing the dam and not harming the environment(Topping, n.d.). Even the best built dams cannot foresee the unpredictable ways of nature.

METHODS TO PREVENT SOCIAL/CULTURAL DEGRADATION

    Along with the inundated lands are many of ancient China’s archaeological and cultural sites. These sites are compromised for the 385-mile-long reservoir that the TGP will create. Although it is possible to protect the refugees of the project from losing their culture and China’s social capital, the idea is not in the minds of Chinese leaders. The resettlement will disperse dam refugees throughout many regions. If the resettlement was carefully planned with the social capital of the regions affected at the center, then relocating the people, though more cost-intensive, would favor the retention of culture.

    As seen in a case study of Indonesian dam refugees(Costa-Pierce, 1998), carefully planned and funded resettlement programs can be successful. Although that particular study found limited success, the factors that contributed to the project’s limited success, if controlled through stringent government regulation and support in the economic, social, and environmental aspects, will very likely allow for successful programs in the future.

    If China was to invest more effort, time, and funding to their resettlement program as in the case of Indonesia, then success in resettlement may be possible. In either case, resettlement of the TGP refugees would prove extremely difficult with the size of the people affected being the main driving force.

RECOMMENDATIONS

    Although the project will increase China’s economic growth dramatically, it will greatly decrease China’s environmental and social capital. In assessing the total costs of the project and the damage caused by the TGP, it would be much cheaper for China to turn to alternative sources of energy.

    Solar, wind, and geothermal energy sources can provide China with much needed energy without the environmental and the social costs of dams. Bell(n.d.) proposes the use of three types of alternative renewable sources in lieu of the TGP. Solar energy, reliable and somewhat inexpensive, costs about $2.1 million per megawatt. Wind energy is considered very cheap, around 5-7 cents per kilowatt-hour. Geothermal energy is very abundant, able to supply 35 billion times the world’s annual energy consumption(Bell, n.d.). Geothermal sources, once fairly expensive, are now becoming a cheaper source with prices projected at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2000 to less than 4 cents in 2010. According to Bell(n.d.) these three types of renewable sources would benefit China in the long run because they are environmentally sound, dependable, and do not require much land.

    Chinese energy efficiency is very low due to its poor industrial technology. This inefficiency is a major driving force of China’s demand for more power. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam is only a temporary cure to China’s energy crisis. Only a shift to more efficient energy sources and use will China’s energy demand be abated(Ryder, 1990).

CONCLUSION

    China is on the road to rapid westernization. Politically, the completion of the TGP would symbolize China’s emergence as a superpower. In this view, TGP is needed not only for economic growth but also political growth as well. Topping(n.d.) has argued that this may even be China’s main driving force to complete the TGP. Figure 5 is a summary of the benefits in the different areas affected by the TGP.
 

ASPECT	POSITIVE BENEFIT	NEGATIVE BENEFIT
Political	X
Social
Local		X
National	X
Economic
Local		X
National	X
Environmental
Local		X
National		X

Figure 5. Benefits of Various Aspects of the TGP

    Regardless of the motive the Three Gorges Project is considered as an "ecological disaster." In working with the environment, we must follow the precautionary principle from the "Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer" and give nature the benefit of the doubt. We have only one Earth to live on. No longer can we destroy nature for short-term gains in economic and socio-political growth.